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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32840 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 20, 2023

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So I was doing some reading on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. I was vaguely pro-Israel before with disclaimers on how both sides are bad (like most others here I presume), but I just felt more and more pro-Israel the deeper I read (I'm not trying to astroturf, this is my true feelings on the matter). The Israeli demands during the 2000 Camp David Summit seem reasonable. The Palestinian leadership seem weirdly comfortable with ridiculous conspiracy theories about Israel trying to undermine the Al-Aqsa Mosque etc. The ban on non-Muslims from the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the ban on non-Muslim prayer on the Temple Mount, are both reprehensible. Every nook I look into, it seems like I support the Israeli side and the "both sides are bad" cases that I expected to find is largely missing.

Has anyone else had the experience of their position markedly shifting as the read up on the issue? Are the Israelis just better than PR, cunningly doing bad things to the Palestinian side under the radar, while counting on that the Palestinian reaction will be performed with much worse optics? What's the best moderate Palestinian take on an acceptable solution for a workable two-state solution?

Also, what are your predictions for the evolution of the conflict. Say that the year is 2043 and condition on no end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: what does the conflict look like then? It seems unlikely to cool anytime soon, and the long run seems like a race between Palestinian demographics and Israeli economy, where I think Israel has the upper hand, especially if they are liberal with technological mass surveillance.

This has largely been my sentiment on the topic for as long as I can remember - "boy, it's a real shame that there's absolutely nowhere for Arab Muslims to go". The continued refusal on the part of Arab Muslim nations to provide sanctuary to Palestinians highlights their desire to keep the conflict going for political reasons. It probably is wildly unfair that the Israelis were given that strip of land, but oh well, such is life, there's a pretty obvious resolution path that doesn't rolling that back.

While I think it's probably the case that the only true long-term resolution is a three state arrangement with Egypt annexing the Gaza Strip and Jordan the West Bank, I also accept that neither of those would be popular right now because neither of those countries is on good terms with the Palestinians. Arafat was involved with a 1970 attempt to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy, and Hamas in Gaza occasionally shoots at the Egyptians (who also maintain the blockade) too.

While the Israelis are not completely innocent in the conflict, it does seem like convincing a fractured Palestinian leadership to adopt peaceful resistance strategies is the only alternative to the current status quo.

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