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Notes -
So I was doing some reading on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. I was vaguely pro-Israel before with disclaimers on how both sides are bad (like most others here I presume), but I just felt more and more pro-Israel the deeper I read (I'm not trying to astroturf, this is my true feelings on the matter). The Israeli demands during the 2000 Camp David Summit seem reasonable. The Palestinian leadership seem weirdly comfortable with ridiculous conspiracy theories about Israel trying to undermine the Al-Aqsa Mosque etc. The ban on non-Muslims from the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the ban on non-Muslim prayer on the Temple Mount, are both reprehensible. Every nook I look into, it seems like I support the Israeli side and the "both sides are bad" cases that I expected to find is largely missing.
Has anyone else had the experience of their position markedly shifting as the read up on the issue? Are the Israelis just better than PR, cunningly doing bad things to the Palestinian side under the radar, while counting on that the Palestinian reaction will be performed with much worse optics? What's the best moderate Palestinian take on an acceptable solution for a workable two-state solution?
Also, what are your predictions for the evolution of the conflict. Say that the year is 2043 and condition on no end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: what does the conflict look like then? It seems unlikely to cool anytime soon, and the long run seems like a race between Palestinian demographics and Israeli economy, where I think Israel has the upper hand, especially if they are liberal with technological mass surveillance.
The worst thing we (Israel) did was conquest of land but not people in 1967. In 1947-48, our war of independence (and Palestinian catastrophe) we transferred many Arabs out of our conquered territory - by force and fear. Those who remained had marshal law imposed on them, gradually released until finally it was cancelled in 1966, but they were citizens with voting rights at least. Their current situation is not perfect, but it's leagues and miles better than the situation of their fellow Arabs across the 1948 armistice line.
When we took the land up to the Jordan river (Judea and Samaria, aka "the west bank") and the Gaza strip, we did not annex that territory and did not grant the Arabs there citizenship. You see, there were simply too many of them. Had we granted them citizenship, we would have annihilated ourselves. We also did not kick them out (well, not enough of them anyway), what with them being innocent civilians and all. So since then and up to today, these people live in limbo - they weren't given the final word on their status. They belong to no country, they are not masters of their own destiny and land, they basically have nothing. They can't even surrender, since they've already lost.
Meanwhile, various governments in Israel started building in the conquered (but not actually annexed!) territory, making separation ever harder. At this point in time, the whole thing seems lost without drastic action. Someone has to get out. Either we, or them. They don't have the power to move us, and we don't have the heart to move them. It's a quagmire we can blame only ourselves for.
"Low intensity conflict", at least until something really bad happens. All-out war that will see most Arabs moved to Jordan is probably the best-case scenario, but I don't see it happening.
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