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IMO your data on where QB are drafted is dated. The last 5-8 years of drafts we’ve seen many more QB draft classes clustered with picks 1,2,3 QB if teams like them. And picks 8-20 be true second tier prospects. Good prospects are getting pushed higher up the board. Mahomes, Allen, Ben types aren’t going pick 10 anymore.
Willis is an example of a QB that needed time to develop. His traits are absolutely elite - rocket arm, 4.4 ‘40, Motte poster level Wonderlich score and IQ definitely matters at the QB position. Some reason he only played at Liberty University. Willis was bad in the NFL because he played as a rookie at Liberty which is a giant competition jump.
Elite Traits + 4 years development + 4 good NFL games is 100% an interesting background to bet on. And for the same money as Rodgers.
Steelers have 0% probability of getting a top 3 pick and a shot at a clean QB prospect.
Sorsby had a good shot at going first round this year and most draft prognosticators have him as a top 15 pick without the gambling next year. Not a third round guy. Allar with slightly worse arm, better tape, and far better legs.
I don’t bitch about the Steelers. A lot is well run. It’s just they need to take bigger variance risks to find a QB.
If you need a top 3 pick to land a championship caliber quarterback then I wouldn't worry about drafting one at all, because the only teams capable of being that bad aren't winning a championship any time soon. The Steelers haven't had fewer than 5 wins since Chuck Noll's inaugural season, and they're too competent to get that bad again organically. Deliberately tanking, as some people have suggested, would require them to tear the team down to the studs, at which point they'd get their quarterback but still need to find the rest of the team.
Willis has always looked good on paper, but his NFL sample size is too limited to spend any serious money on him. Sure, he's getting the same money as Rodgers, but Rodgers is a known quantity on a one year deal, not a project on a 3 year deal (though I believe only one is guaranteed). If the Steelers think they can compete this year (and they're better on paper than last year, when they won the division), then they weren't going to spend starter money on a dice roll who was only going to ride the bench if Rodgers came back. If they want to take that chance they have two guys on the roster who can do it for peanuts. The Dolphins are in the middle of a rebuild and can afford to take a chance like that. You need to keep in mind that guys like Mason Rudolph and Mike White look good in small sample sizes. Hell, Duck Hodges briefly looked like a competent game manager. Then the opposition gets enough film on the guy and realize how limited his bag of tricks is and put together a defensive strategy that he's incapable of responding to. Not saying that's Willis, but we simply don't know yet.
Mitch Trubisky, Justin Fields, and Kenny Pickett were all high variance risks, they just weren't risky because the team had little to lose. And when they didn't work out people still bitched about it. Paying one of these guys 22 million a year would up the risk factor but wouldn't make them smarter. Letting Allar, Howard, and Rudolph would have been a high variance risk, and one they would have been willing to take if Rodgers didn't come back, but there's no point in criticizing the Rodgers deal because any of these guys could still theoretically be the starter if they do well in camp and Rodgers loses it.
IMO Willis 100% boosted the Steelers Super Bowl chances this year. The floor is lower but his ceiling is much higher than Rodgers at this point.
It’s nice winning 10 games a year, but you want championships and playoff victories. You do need to take risks to win big or some how get lucky and find Brady. The Rams have had bad years and Super Bowls. Same with the Eagles.
Some times you do need to bet on a 4 game sample size. The guy whose won MVP’s and are not on AARP are not available in free agency.
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