Bernd
Fighting algorithmic racism like John Henry
1yr ago·Edited 1yr ago
Holy shit, there are so many red flags in that screed. People take this guy seriously? He's just spewing random figures in the hopes nobody checks them.
It's just an endless stream of "here's some numbers, NEW PARADIGM! insert sneer, more numbers, SYNERGY!""
Inadequately serviced demand for short-term grid stabilization is a market inefficiency and represents an opportunity for arbitrage.
And he just lathers on the sneering so he doesn't have to explain how this arbitrage scales to 100% seasonal battery storage and "10-15x overbuilding solar". It's as if SBF claimed the Japanese bitcoin arbitrage was a secret trick to dominating the world economy, rather than a rapidly exhausted pool of free money laying on the floor, like finding coins under a vending machine.
If the gas peaker plant starts up, the battery can flood the market, diminishing the price and cutting the peaker’s revenue. If the peaker does not start, the battery can enjoy a high level of revenue for as long as the demand persists. If the peaker wants to lock in a given price level, they will have to pay the battery operator a fair market price for this opportunity, or else take their ball and go home. Given that they have precisely no cards in their hand, it’s turned out to be a bit of a shakedown.
If the battery and the peaker flood the market, the battery doesn't make any money either. It's like he considers battery power unlimited. It is the other way around: The peaker is the one with virtually unlimited supply at a given price. Once the battery is empty, the peaker can make bank.
If battery and solar is or will be so cheap, there is no need for an argument. Even the most die-hard climate denier would not pay more for fossil fuel. But this has not been our experience these last years: the greens said it was already cheap, but in actuality it was expensive and subsidized.
I suppose the sneering tone can trigger some people. But I think his analysis is one of the better ones I have read. The learning curve for solar means it will be a large part of the energy future. At this point as far as I can tell the debate is about the minority of power that is baseload or long term seasonal storage. Has anyone looked at just over building batteries?
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Notes -
Holy shit, there are so many red flags in that screed. People take this guy seriously? He's just spewing random figures in the hopes nobody checks them.
It's just an endless stream of "here's some numbers, NEW PARADIGM! insert sneer, more numbers, SYNERGY!""
And he just lathers on the sneering so he doesn't have to explain how this arbitrage scales to 100% seasonal battery storage and "10-15x overbuilding solar". It's as if SBF claimed the Japanese bitcoin arbitrage was a secret trick to dominating the world economy, rather than a rapidly exhausted pool of free money laying on the floor, like finding coins under a vending machine.
Could you tell me specific critiques you have of Handmer's analysis? Or even better can you steelman his position?
If the battery and the peaker flood the market, the battery doesn't make any money either. It's like he considers battery power unlimited. It is the other way around: The peaker is the one with virtually unlimited supply at a given price. Once the battery is empty, the peaker can make bank.
If battery and solar is or will be so cheap, there is no need for an argument. Even the most die-hard climate denier would not pay more for fossil fuel. But this has not been our experience these last years: the greens said it was already cheap, but in actuality it was expensive and subsidized.
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I suppose the sneering tone can trigger some people. But I think his analysis is one of the better ones I have read. The learning curve for solar means it will be a large part of the energy future. At this point as far as I can tell the debate is about the minority of power that is baseload or long term seasonal storage. Has anyone looked at just over building batteries?
AFAIK the learning curve for batteries doesn‘t look that rosy for the near future (for grid-scale storage).
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