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birb_cromble  1mo ago (text post)   1062 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread - 2027-07-04

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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  • Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
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You're betting into large holds inplay, I'd be very surprised if you had any unique insights on stuff that actually impacts lategame pricing like rotations or quality of substitutes moreso than vibe-betting and the 'secret data' thing is literally just applied intelligence. Big syndicates will literally rewatch all games played and regrade them according to their own particular talent evaluation matrices, plus pay for the absolute fastest feeds (If you're watching on TV you are verymuch behind) and they barely eke out tiny margins over time.

The Median Sports Fan's IQ for these things is essentially 20 in terms of betting ability, there is a gigantic gap between 'smarter than the average punter' and 'capable of swinging profitably on gut feel on the most liquid sporting markets in the world without particular price sensitivty'. You'd be better off just punting random stocks since atleast that's a positive sum market.

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