Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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With respect to Iran, that question hasn't come up yet, I think he'd be willing if he isn't getting what he needs - but the posters like me who think things are going fine feel like the question of ground war isn't being asked yet.
With respect to Ukraine he seems to think this isn't really any of America's business and that our involvement is unnecessary, with a side helping of "Europe needs to solve their own fucking problems." American military support has become necessary because That Is What We Do but he doesn't seem to care about it, and in contrast with Iran because the hostage crisis was a formative thing for men of a certain generation.
I would bet money that part of Russia's political calculus is "how do we approach this without pissing Trump off enough to get him involved and interested."
An assassination would do that.
Note that Russia's threats toward the US have been very mild by their standards since Trump 2 came on board.
The hostage crisis was formative but not the Cold War?
I think a reading of Trump that's compatible with all of this is that he's a flat-track bully who wants easy wins. Or, more charitably, holds his allies to a higher standard based on the view that they're either more malleable or already possess a large enough collection of military and economic power as to solve regional problems if they would but apply it.
This is why he's so harsh towards allies, including in ways that are unprecedented, but willing to find some deal with people he understands he cannot only coerce. It's easier to coerce Ukraine to sign unto a deal than Russia. At least, that was the theory of the case when he ganged up on Zelensky.
Iran was in a liminal zone: an uppity Third World pissant that did things like kidnap US staff, but a dangerous one as pissants go. So no attack, until it looked incredibly weak.
I don't think Trump wants or expects to be in anything like the sort of generation-defining conflict a war with Iran or the reprisal for the assassination of a US Senator would demand. He wants Venezuela-wins (not a surprise the attack on Iran was after that)
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