Throwaway05
6hr ago
I do not understand the way you view the world.
I cannot imagine hating jews so much that you feel compelled to paint being the victim of terrorist attacks as terrorism.
I cannot imagine hating the jews so much that you support adversaries that want you and your way of life to end and die, just as I can't understand woke LGBTQs who support islamic fundamentalism that quite literally would appreciate it if they die.
The enemy of your enemy is not your friend.
And perhaps most importantly, I don't understand why all the anti-Jew posters can't just hate Israel and want Iran to lose at the same time.
Like why the heck not?
Throwaway05
6hr ago
No strategic goals have been achieved.
The US has dramatically increased the availability of options for this conflict and future action.
If we want to leave and leave it to a coalition of local nations to ransack Iran? Much more feasible now.
If we want the regime to have very real tradeoffs between keeping the country functioning and rebuilding vs. missiles, drones, and rebuilding the military? It's a serious problem. The regime may be done from this alone, just not in a time horizon that the US needs for this specific moment.
Want to ground invade? Soften them up.
The amount and variety of stuff that we have destroyed is immense, the economy is in shambles... just because we haven't destroyed all the missile launchers doesn't mean that all those bombs were dropped on nothing.
Throwaway05
6hr ago
"...deterrence strategy of massive retaliation with nuclear weapons as a "last resort" against any country whose military has invaded and/or destroyed much of Israel.[1]"
Defensive. Stance.
Iran has been engaged in terrorist attacks against Israel for literally decades. Now also engaging in terrorist attacks on other non-Israel neighbors.
Offensive stance.
All Iran has to do to be left alone is not engage in terrorism (well, prior to recent events). That seems like a simple ask.
Throwaway05
6hr ago
Samson is a defensive stance, Iran is an aggressive nation with offensive interests that present existential threats to its neighbor as well as more mundane severe threats.
Fundamentally Iran is a nation that is running around punching people in the face. Who is more problematic, the guy who can punch back hard, or the guy punching people in the face?
Throwaway05
8hr ago
What's the evidence that the U.S. government had no plan?
The U.S. has a plan to invade Canada (back before people were talking about that as a real possibility). The plan not being very good, or not panning out as well as one hoped is not the same as their being no plan.
No plan, no plan for Hormuz, etc. are essentially memetic slurs.
It is not credible to assume that the world's largest military with a hard-on for over preparation didn't have a plan, or that one of the most well run and heavily motivated for this specific scenario militaries (Israel) had no plan.
Throwaway05
8hr ago
Having nukes is just better in almost every way than not having nukes,
I don't think this is the case based off of the game theory of nuclear weapons - the rational response to a country with significant interest in tremendously harming the West nuclearizing is to turn the entire country into glass regardless of casualties the minute it becomes obvious they'll nuclearize. The threat is too severe.
In real life the anti-nuclear taboo would prevent this from happening, but the moment Iran steps out of line the response would immense and civilization ending with tens of millions dead.
We barely made it out of the Cold War and that's with both countries not wanting to use nukes and both countries mostly believing that the opponent didn't want to use nukes (even if for no other reason than nukes = death for everybody).
But Iran wants to use nukes! Some people in the government might not even care if they get away with it because of the religious extremism.
The odds of everybody in the country dying are basically zero in the pre-nuke state. Hopefully the odds would be not great, but you'd have a very real chance of tens of millions of causalities post-nuke.
Having nukes would present at tremendous risk both to the people and the government.
Now, the government likely is totally fine with risking the entire population to persevere itself.
That's a pretty good indication to justify wiping out the Iranian government.
Throwaway05
8hr ago
Yeah it's absurd. One of the greatest threats to the entire planet is Pakistan losing a war to India. Or winning a war to India. Or tripping over its own feet and having an economic crisis.
As soon as nukes are in play the country becomes an existential threat to civilization, even if the more likely outcome is hundreds of thousands to millions dead...that is not good.
North Korea does not represent the full range of nuclear countries, and we haven't even played that one all the way out.
Iran is far more likely to use it, sell it, or cause problems than any current nuclear actor and the inability to recognize this is simply horrifying.
Throwaway05
3d ago
I'm sure you know some of this but as usual you can look at places like Credible Defense to see somewhat objective reporting and sober engagement with the facts, often with what amounts to reporting and emphasis you might not see elsewhere (for example I saw a lot more talking about the economic implications of events for Iran itself, the job loses in the Iranian economy, and so on. That's been going around for weeks and is the part actual Persians I know are focusing on. Haven't seen it get picked up by MSM too much until today).
Additionally I'd say that most of what is being discussed here is the interpretation of those facts, yeah some people be claiming some bonkers stuff but that's usually easy to spot. The analysis is all over the place, but I imagine that the analysis is the stuff itself, since if Trump won or lost is likely going to be determined later, and will be easily spun as the opposite by interested parties. History written by the victor etc.
Even stuff like the Vietnam War is really a matter of perspective as to who won (not saying I agree with the take we won). This will absolutely be about perspective and the discourse here is frustrating but it's the perspective being written in real time.
Ex: I maintained that the war aims were clear (as did the Rs). The Ds ran a campaign to say the war aims weren't clear. The Ds won. Reality now reflects their propaganda. So seeing what people saying is the thing itself?
That said I discovered 2Way (especially 2Way Morning Meeting) around the time of the Kirk assassination and it's overwhelmingly the highest quality MSM reporting I've seen for a long time.
Check it out if you have a commute.
Throwaway05
3d ago
Yes, sometimes several bills, because why make it easy for you, what you are going to do, not use medical services? And yes, those several bills may be from several billing systems, each set up differently, and not talking to each other. Some don't even have online payment options. A lot of medical billing is surprisingly low-tech still.
While this is annoying it's actually better than the alternatively, usually when you get separate bills it mean you are getting one from the physician, the health system, and the lab or something else similar to that.
Why not consolidate?
Well some places do and then you have a monopoly with resulting problems.
Separate bills means separate entities which slightly keeps what little of free market economics you can get in healthcare.
Throwaway05
4d ago
Major neuro-cognitive disorders (of which "dementia" is an example) are true pathology. They are generally irreversible, progressive, and ultimately life limiting (if something else doesn't get there first).
When someone says "dementia" it evokes the imagery of a dying grandma who can't remember who her kids are, or as you note other ways in which most people have seen family in their life decline.
Trump has probably lost a step and experienced a decline from his functioning ten years ago in a very normal way. It may be tempting to label this as "fine it is an exaggeration" but these are severely different categories. Your uncle Phillip who used to be razor sharp and stumbles over his words sometimes is not the dying grandma.
This is especially important because of what happened with Biden, who by all accounts is actually for real demented and wasn't fit to hold the job, vs. someone who is fit to hold the job in the sense that some people are unhappy with what he is doing and other people are happy. The dementia accusations are a lying TDS slur.
You can hate Trump and his plans without biting on the misinformation and idiocy.
Throwaway05
4d ago
The medication error death rates thing is last I checked pure unadulterated bullshit - literally not statistical analysis or research with severe methodology flaws (ex: multiplying small scale studies from other decades over the entire population decades later, mixing together preventable errors with unavoidable adverse events).
As an oversimplified example - if you were already dying of a stroke and were given a medication that prevents death 90% of the time and affirms death 10% of the time (via for instance a bleed), they'd mark that as a medication error and add it to the killed by medicine pile. That is....stupid.
Throwaway05
4d ago
May be worth reading based off of the comment haha.
Throwaway05
5d ago
Doing things you don't like isn't evidence of cognitive impairment.
Running an incredibly demanding schedule is evidence of no cognitive impairment.
Either way - age related decline in cognition is not dementia.
Throwaway05
5d ago
I know we sniped back and forth on the topic of the war so I am trying to think of a way to broach this topic in a somewhat non-confrontational way and I'm struggling.
Thinking Trump is in any way immersed in dementia is just tremendously non-credible.
As contrast consider Biden - he was basically hidden from the American people with an aggressive support by all levels of institutions and the press corp to minimize his symptoms. His last primary care note was also extremely concerning. He also barely worked.
Trump has everyone breathing down his neck, is constantly making himself publicly available in a variety of ways, is working a tremendously grueling schedule, and has had leaks of him going about his social life in his usual way.
He may not be the man he was ten years ago, but he's working harder and functioning better than a lot of men half his age. The stress may or may not be getting to him, where it may or may not have been before, but he ain't demented.
Throwaway05
5d ago
Best I can tell the LLMs have basically found use as a "force multipliers" for skilled workers to expand their productivity, especially in finance and tech. This news exhibit an extension into searching a solution space with later verification by skilled workers. I'm sure the use cases will continue to expand but medicine is fundamentally different - you'd be looking at replacing a skilled worker for purposes of replacement (obviously) and unlike other cases were someone verifies, in a replacing doctors scenario you'd need to be getting it right 100% of the time with no second check. In medicine the checking would be the same as doing the work.
Throwaway05
5d ago
....have you read Starship Troopers by any chance?
Throwaway05
6d ago
These days an intellectual life outside of medicine has been mostly beaten out of the field, so anyone who does that sort of thing is usually exceptional in some way (often in peculiarity and surplus of intellectual horsepower.
Throwaway05
7d ago
Thankfully I'm a tremendously non-central example otherwise I couldn't write here. I'm sure someone who knew me very well in person would peg me immediately, which is a risk - in terms of more general opsec and guessing my specialty... my combination of rambling detailed knowledge and pontificating bullshit doesn't really meld with the periodic grumpy cursing incisiveness.
Those are pretty firmly going in two different directions stereotype wise.
I supposed I best fit the stereotype of an old-style PCP but they are pretty much dying out at this point.
Throwaway05
7d ago
Outside of specific subfields pathology is a pretty anti-social specialty with a lot of time working on their own/outside the hospital milieu and near zero patient interaction. Communication skills are therefore weaker. The work is also quite a bit more basic science oriented. When Glaucomflecken makes fun of pathologists they are unhealthily attached to their microscopes.
The other major anti-social specialty is Radiology, but Rads is up in everyone else's business and is required to know an incredible variety of shit. Sometimes get called the physician's physician because they know a lot and heavily guide decisions. Communication skills are a lot better because Rads gets called more often and reports are more nuanced and need clinical correlation and therefore shit like theory of mind. When Glaucomflecken makes fun of Radiologists it's about wearing sunglasses indoors (because they live in dark rooms with fancy computers).
When I went to the Path lab as a medical student they'd be happy to see me, apologize for things still being pending, offer to show me slides, and get me tea. When I went to find the imaging room I'd have to walk through a secret door in the back of a nursing locker room in the third sub-basement wherein I would get bitched at for exactly 30 seconds which was followed by exactly 30 seconds of clearly explaining the context behind the read. I would then flee.
The above is an exaggeration. ...And also not.
In my experience Pathologists make excellent pre-clinical teachers and mentors when inclined because they know and are interested in the more science stuff, and the ones who are involved have the patience and communication skills to be good teachers (otherwise they wouldn't do it). Radiologists make better clinical teachers and mentors because they have to be efficient/excellent at time management, and deal with a lot of risk and uncertainty.
Lastly, my friends in Radiology can still be trusted to know and remember basic clinical medicine shit. The pathologists...no.
Throwaway05
7d ago
like surgeons are supposedly the jocks of the medical profession. The show Scrubs describes some of the stereotypes.
Yes just so.
Ortho, Pathology, and Internal Medicine are probably further apart in temperament and day to day work than a Lawyer, Tech-bro, and Finance-bro.
This makes us much harder to stereotype although there are definitely some (like being bad at finances).
Throwaway05
8d ago
Biden was a weak president and was likely perceived that way by foreign adversaries, especially with what we know now.
I strongly belief if Trump, Obama, Bush, or Clinton was the president then Putin would not have invaded.
Throwaway05
8d ago
Don't really have any objection to your clarifications. A lot of people in general have bit on the propaganda, or are reflexively anti-Jew or Trump (thus my mentioning of Israel at all).
How much of a success this was won't be something we know for years, and how much necessary it was may not be something we know for decades.
Lots of people looking at painful short term costs and assuming that's all that matters for the discussion.
Throwaway05
8d ago
I think one thing to keep in mind is that it is entirely possible that behind the scenes information alters the calculus such that most, if not all presidents would have jumped in on this one.
It's not popular to consider, but if Iran actually went ahead with nuclearization or was reaching a break point with missile/drone production...both of those essentially "require" intervention if we are to keep with our foreign policy goals.
These things are part of the "official" stated reason for the war and are quite possibly actually accurate, even if many Americans aren't happy for them. The underlying motivation might be something like "we have to go now or Iran will be able to destroy Israel and we can't do anything about it. You might be okay with destroying Israel but the U.S. government isn't (at least for now).
Additionally Trump and likely any replacement Republican president would be tempted to pull the trigger if it was a near thing and not yet profoundly dire due to a fear of ending up like Biden (in the sense of permitting Russia to attack Ukraine).
Throwaway05
8d ago
The Dems heavily rely on American Black voters and are equally heavily subservient to their interests. Black people hate gays (per polling data).
This kills Buttigieg. Full stop.
No argument from me that the other countries are idiots and would only make a mess - balkanizing Iran and running around pillaging would be a humanitarian disaster and is therefore a suboptimal outcome but it would get the job done.
No doubt that at times we've bombed inflatable decoys, but we've bombed plenty of infrastructure - both military and otherwise. Large factories and supply depots are static targets that are well within our ability to have targeted in advance. Even empty buildings need to be rebuilt.
The regime is economically hurting, that's one of the reasons we are in there now. Things that get destroyed now are going to be much harder to replace.
I don't remember seeing "the regime is done" for years. I have seen some credible argumentation that the situation is much, much rockier for them now.
Remember that is an isolated country that is about to be more isolated than it has ever been.
More options
Context Copy link