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Notes -
I think Trump is definitely attempting to put on a show for the base rather than doing things that might be effective.
This seems like the worst option of all policy worlds, because it's basically creating a selection effect for the worst types of immigrants.
It will scare off risk averse immigrants, and any immigrants that want a stable/predictable legal situation.
The easiest to find immigrants are ones that are trying to work within our legal system. They leave a paper trail. That paper trail might be from jobs, taxes, school enrollment, etc.
The hardest to find immigrants operate entirely in the black market.
How are we defining "effective" in this context?
One of MAGA's stated goals is to reduce illegal immigration. If "putting on a show for the base" results in illegal border crossings hitting a 50 year low, they may reasonably conclude that doing so is an effective means of achieving said goal. Refer also to my prior posts on "picking up Tuna Cans".
As for your concern about "selection effects", the argument pattern matches to a common form of rhetorical bait-and-switch where legal immigration is conflated with illegal immigration. I imagine that risk averse immigrants who sincerely want a stable/predictable legal situation would apply for legal status without having to be prompted or threatened.
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