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I was going to debunk some of these claims but I see other Mottizens have already done so. I'll just say that when this war was a few days old my first question to someone claiming it as a great success was:
I'm probably one of the biggest "Iran won" advocates here but I never claimed that they'd literally start conquering their neighbors or obliterating carriers (mostly since the USN isn't stupid enough to park a carrier in range of Iranian anti-ship missiles), just that they'd be like the Houthis on steroids, capable of absorbing Trump's blows and inflicting serious economic damage on the world for basically no benefit to the average American, ultimately provoking a political backlash that will make American politicians in the future think twice about messing with Iran for fear of becoming Jimmy Carter or Trump.
Then, a few months later, I specifically asked you a question:
I notice you never replied to that one. If Iran is broken and everything is fine then would everything still be fine if Trump pulled a Joe Kent and left? As others have pointed out, you seem to have no clear definition of what would constitute "Trump losing" short of Trump literally going on TV and admitting defeat.
Also a few side points,
Easily: Iran didn't "bomb the UAE", they bombed Emirati ships in Emirati waters. The Emiratis thought the Mullahgeld would give them protection to resume shipping through the Strait but Iran disagrees. They're willing to accept bribes to avoid hitting land based infrastructure, as evidenced by the disparity between strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait vs the UAE and Qatar, but they clearly consider control of the Strait to be their most powerful card, one they'll never sell at any price.
Well, since the last time you claimed "Trump won!" the price of crude has risen, the diesel crack spread has expanded, the Dollar is down and bond yields are up. Why does every market indicator contradict your fantastic story about invisible supertankers effortlessly breaking the blockade?
Why does Trump Chickening Out consistently result in Crude prices falling while Trump (or Iran) escalating consistently cause them to spike if Iran is powerless regardless? Why does Trump constantly oscillate between claiming a Deal is imminent and threatening to annihilate Iran if everything is going his way? Presumably he could just go "we've got Iran where we want them and now I'm going to focus on American priorities" and let the problem solve itself.
Do you want to say that Iran controls the Straits? I think it’s getting harder to say this with a straight face and an open heart.
Ok, where is the serious economic damage?
I just think this is a dumb question. Why would America surrender the field when we are winning?
I am on the record many times saying that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon and will never toll the straits.
Everyone in the world understands bombing ships as an act of war except apparently Iran and you. That’s literally what the flags on ships are for.
And it’s down since the war began.
This is basically his exact position. Trump posted today that he’s fine to continue blockading Iran because they won’t take a deal.
Face it: Iran cannot control the Straits, cannot inflict any blows on the United States, and their only hope of changing the situation is begging on social media for Democrats to win the election. Trump has them exactly where he wants them, which is also why he’s been in no particular rush. Iran is blustering strength because that’s all they can do to save face.
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If America just walked away Iran would still continue their extortion, with noone to help sneak ships past it. So the situation would be worse than just continuing the current status quo.
This is a stupid question. For example Venezuela is more undisputably beaten, yet there's good reason to get more involved there, such as normalizing relations and setting up renewed resource extraction. And all of this needs some military in the region to keep things in order, even though likely they won't fight at all.
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