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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   32974 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 27, 2023

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You can make quality arguments against crypto valuation but isolating the drops from the rises is not an honest way to talk about risk.

You can see how starting in early 2018 returns become much worse even if still positive. 22k/15k is just an 8% annual return since early 2018. If history is any guide and if you believe the people on twitter and youtube, November was the bottom BTC will go up 10-20x (or more) to $100k or whatever. I think it will not recover.

You can see how starting in early 2018 returns become much worse even if still positive. 22k/15k is just an 8% annual return since early 2018.

I mean here you go picking another peak. 2017 is a 20x and 2019 is a 5-6x but you, for not very mysterious reasons, picked 2018 and not just 2018 but a period of roughly 3 months that it was over $10k.

If history is any guide and if you believe the people on twitter and youtube, November was the bottom BTC will go up 10-20x (or more) to $100k or whatever. I think it will not recover.

Do you do all of your market sentiment analysis based off of the activities of random sketchy 'influencers'? This is like feeling bearish on cosmetics because of the unrealistic ramblings of Mary Kay stay at home moms, there is no signal where you are pointing.

Pre-2018 is where all the easy money was made. 100x returns from mid 2015 to late 2017. That will never happen again. At best, maybe $40-60k. Andreessen creating a crypto fund in 2020-2021 is too late. It's like creating a gold mining company in California in 1884 instead 1848. But since its not his money anyway, it's not like he is going to lose , unlike his followers who bought at the top.

Do you do all of your market sentiment analysis based off of the activities of random sketchy 'influencers'?

I said "I think it will not recover." so obviously not.

Of course people were saying this in 2019, and of course you could be right it may never go back up. But you could also be wrong and your confidence seems unfounded. I would also point out that a crypto fund isn't necessarily just buying bitcoin and sitting on it. Smaller and newer projects have different growth potential, making the right choice on the various bitcoin forks could have doubled or tripled the amount of bitcoin you were sitting on at certain points not to mention making the right bets on the various other happenings over the years, polygon/matic in 2021 could have done quite well for you and people plugged in could probably have seen the scaling benefits, I know I saw a great return on it.

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