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Notes -
Yes, easily so.
The problem with Eliezer is that he's full of shit. This is just no longer credible. We've made it to agents that crack century-old mathematical problems, there are billions of instances of these things launched every month, every imaginable demographic has tried to use them, and your best example of existential threat is eval gaming that got too far? Isn't it time to update? Sure, there is plausible risk. But the condescending rhetoric about monkeys and poisoned banana has to end. You're not going to win like this.
We've just seen how it works with intentional misalignment. In short, it does not, a completely unhinged capable model stays helpful-harmless in normal user context, its misalignment is limited to eval-shaped environments. Such data suggests that the ROI on further capability development is positive. And that's it I guess.
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