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Notes -
I think the bigger issue for the long-term trajectory of the AfD is that it, just as the populist-left-leaning parties, is riding a general wave of discontent with the current state of affairs for which immigration, the main thing that distinguishes it from its competitors, is just one aspect among others. That current state of affairs is over-determined though, so to speak, by factors that no party, even the AfD in a hypothetical win with a solid supermajority and no institutional resistance, can fix. For example, what is the AfD going to do about German demographics before the welfare state that a large majority of the population worships comes crashing down? In this particular regard, they're actually worse than the mainstream parties, their commitments with regards to e.g. pension spending are only ever so slightly less insane than those of the far-left parties. Or how will they spur competitiveness and cost reductions among the German industrial giants before China grinds them into dust?
There are plausible approaches to both these and the other problems Germany faces, but they're extremely unpopular because they either go against the direct self-interest of the voting population, a majority of which is retired or will be soon, or violate cultural dogmas that have been in the groundwater for so long that to directly reveal their falseness is akin to heresy. The AfD deserves credit for being a large part of why one of those dogmas, the one around migration, has started to dissolve, but they're IMO just as blind as the mainstream parties on many others.
No to defend Merz or anything, but this general idea applies to him as well. He has the bad luck to be the face of government at a time when historical trends that he personally has little to do with have finally come to a head and have begun to enforce themselves on political reality. No doubt his constant gaffes and affinity for offending every single interest group is fairly unique, but I feel like everyone, especially far-rightists and -leftists who seem to particularly hate him, uses him as an easy scapegoat to avoid thinking too hard about the fact that their personal political program would probably fail just as hard, given the material and more importantly cultural constraints he has to work under.
I fully agree with your assessment.
Just one quibble: I don't think the AfD failing to fix the country's actual issues will be held against the AfD any more than the current government's attempts to fix some of the symptoms will be held in the current government's favor. Voters don't respect work on fundamentals. Voters go for vibes and handouts.
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