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birb_cromble  5d ago (text post)   1002 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-09-12

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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*Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.

  • Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
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Yes. The key factor for cyclicals is the capital cycle. For shipping, this is the order book. Fortunately we have some visibility here. We know how many ships are coming. Any orders placed now won't arrive for 5 years.

Longer term, I'm bullish about bulk shipping (coal/iron) because the order book is empty.

Tankers are in a medium position.

The container ship order book is full.

So we know the order book. The question becomes how much profit the tankers can make and distribute before the cycle ends. A company like Frontline will pay dividends equal to at least 30 of its share price in the next 18 months. Since everyone in shipping has been burned a million times, the good companies don't rush to buy new ships. Companies like Frontline, Starbulk, Hafnia, and DHT pay out almost all their profits as dividends. This is good behavior in a cyclical industry.

Memory chip investors, on the other end, will likely end up poor. The windfall profits these companies make are not being distributed, they are being reinvested into new capacity. (Note, that I am not an expert on this sector so I am less sure here).

While your statement about cyclicals is true on a general level, its important to understand the dynamics driving each sector.

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