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But his results (1 in 50 septillion odds for a lab leak) are so ridiculous they should be rejected outright. I know that RootClaim couldn't just say "um, no" because they had this big important debate that was supposed to set the standard for debates. But they ended up with this ridiculous result and no one is convinced.
Once again we've proven that rationalists have wisdom as a dump stat. It's very concerning that these same people could end up with outsized power in an AI regulatory regime.
I thought he convinced a panel of judges?
Fat Tony is a heuristic. If you have no ability to ask any other questions or investigate yourself or don't have the time to check, it's pretty good. But it's not an irrefutable argument.
It is the judges who produced the ridiculous result. I mean, these two delightful young women won a judged debate. Should we just accept they are skilled debaters because of argument from authority? Or are the judges just as bad as the debaters?
No one who matters was convinced, even though some rationalist made noises like "this updates me towards zoonosis".
I agree that Fat Tony is only a heuristic, but it's a mode of thinking that most rationalists are deficient in. This is where the quokka meme comes from. And I also think, in the real world, the quokka's weaknesses are more severe. I'd much rather have Fat Tony than Scott Aaronson at the head of my army.
Hey I don't want to begrudge you your beliefs but I think you'd find the LessWrong umbrella of subcultures to be much more receptive to Fat Tony arguments than most intellectual communities. It's almost our defining feature.
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