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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   207 thread views

Transnational Thursday for September 24, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I'm from SEA but now im in the US.

What I want to add is that Ukraine and Russia is very illustrative, and the 2028 Taiwanese presidential election pretty much signals what is going to happen long term.

If the Taiwan nationalists wins then it's one step closer to dropping the "One China" policy, which slowly closes the door for long-term-non-military-compromised-political-arrangement, leaving only the door of military-action-violent-invasion. And if CCP still wants China, then we just have to look at Ukraine and Russia to see the end result of that. And to be fair, I don't think that is a bad thing in a poetic spiritual nationalistic sense. Just look at Ukraine and Russia: the Russia-friendly-former-Ukrainians had an easy option, move to the East and welcome the Russian troops, and the anti-Russians moved West and began hunkering. Ukraine, if it survives, truly become its own nation (and a national father figure in Zelensky) with this war. Same thing will be with Taiwan. If they can survive the Chinese invasion and pressure, they will truly become Taiwan.

Now if the "one china" or the pro-status-quo wins, then long-term-non-military-compromised-political-arrangement continues. The anti-CCP people should do what a bunch of smart Hong Kongers did and just leave, because what's left are people who don't care or are pro-CCP. It is the razor wire of being smart and dumb/incapable/unlucky that would stay and fight against the CCP if the rest of the population isn't truly going to fight. Ukraine is also illustrative here, it was because of the removal of Yanukovych (pro-Russia Ukrainian president) that finally prompted Putin to go annex Crimea, which then precipitated the current full invasion. So the reverse will be if there wasn't the removal of Yanukovych, Putin would have kept pressing on his then equivalent of the long-term-non-military-compromised-political-arrangement.

The problem of China-Taiwan probably has been game-theory-ed to death by all sides since the 70s.

Very interesting reply, thanks for that. Can I ask if you have any particular sources you'd recommend for understanding China/Taiwan issues (or East Asian geopolitics in general)?

Can I ask if you have any particular sources you'd recommend for understanding China/Taiwan issues (or East Asian geopolitics in general)?

So I would often have podcasts in the background while I work and in terms of China I have CSIS excellent China Power and Pekingology most often in my rotation (so essentially whenever they post anything). Less frequently is The China-Global South Podcast but I do take a gander if the title sounds intriguing. Not China-specific but China is certainly a frequent topic on The Foreign Affairs Interview. Now the stuff I've listed so far comes from a more liberal cohort of academics and China observers. Though obviously it's a range. So in contrast I also listen to the stuff coming out of the more conservative Hoover Institute, which has their own China-focused podcast China Considered and I especially liked the biography of Xi Jinping's dad and essentially anything Steven Kotkin or Dan Wang has to say about China. I think conservatism has a certain increased level of pragmatism and paranoia, which befits something considered a struggle between civilizations. If I want more mundane news and, I just go to CNA, understanding that they are speaking from a Singaporean perspective. In terms of tech I think Asianometry and in terms of business I think ofStratechery. They're just covering different facets of the same thing, economic competition. I would listen to Sinocism more if they post more because he actually is a journalist.

As you can see, my information diet is very Western-coded, I don't think that changes any time soon unless I actually learn Chinese. I think the most important thing to understand is that we're not sitting in the Politburo listening in and watching Xi Jinping, and he certainly doesn't do press conferences the way Westerners do. So it's all vague and obscure on one side and it's all interpretation and conjectures from the Westerners. Even for Chinese speakers, Chinese academics, Chinese observers of China who live in China and have connections, they're also as often in the dark as the West.

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