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birb_cromble  29d ago (text post)   985 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-09-26

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My point is that inflation is actually low enough (less than 3% core)

Core PCE (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE) year over year has been above 3% for the entirety of 2026. You may be thinking of CPI, which is fair (and lower in 2026 because it has a higher housing weight), but PCE is what the Fed cares about.

While I agree with your points that high consumer borrowing costs play a big role in the vibecession, I would describe the primary driver of these high borrowing costs as bond markets' assessment of the long-term inflation outlook (nominal interest rates need to be higher to compensate for higher inflation) and US debt situation (current deficit and deficit growth is not sustainable, raising the risk that US will be forced to inflate its way out of debt - which again requires higher nominal interest rates).

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