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Why would I ever bet you with those odds when I can get much better odds on Kalshi? What a strange offer. Counterparty risk means I wouldn't bet you at any odds, no offense.
Kalshi is only offering those odds because nobody will bet at even odds; the purpose of the site is for bettors to make money, not to prove their points. It's like insisting that your team is going to win a football game and then insisting the other party give you points; it doesn't exactly demonstrate confidence in your position. If anything, you should be giving him odds.
This is just not how anything works. I might think my air fryer is worth $300 in terms of the value it provides to me, but it doesn’t mean I’d buy it for $300 when Amazon is selling it for $100.
We’re also allowed to think prediction markets are wrong without betting on them. They are bad for all sorts of reasons. They are going to have to clear a large hurdle for me to even consider it.
Finally I am not predicting a Rogers 8 point victory. I only said I wouldn’t be surprised. Gun to my head he wins by 2.
Again, you're missing the point. Being theoretically willing to buy an air fryer for $300 and finding one for $100 is a great deal if the goal is to buy an air fryer. If the goal, however, to convince my that an air fryer is worth $300, telling me that you paid $100 for one doesn't do much to accomplish it.
I am not a betting man myself, but if I'm going to make specific predictions with confidence and meet resistance, I am willing to put my money where my mouth is. I never actually bet, though. The trick is that when someone insists on betting, offer an amount of money that would cause them real (though not catastrophic) pain if they lost. Talk is cheap, and so is a bet that will only cost you $20 if you lose. People who want to bet are a lot less confident when you insist on $500 or $1000. At that point the tables have turned and they admit that they are only confident enough to involve a "fun" amount of money.
Not exactly a hot take.
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Talk is cheap. I don't believe you.
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