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Notes -
I think if we were to see a quick resolution in a way that was favorable we'd probably expect to see oil prices that were low both in the spot market but in the futures market as well. (Or at the very least, a much steeper term structure.) As it stands if I want to get 1000 barrels of crude in December, it'd cost about $90.50/bbl. If I want it in August, it still would cost roughly $81/bbl or so. (Eyeballing the futures for WTI Crude Oil.)
Before the war, we were trading at around $70 or so. The futures that has that price roughly is around sometime in mid-2028. Now these prices move a lot and are subject to drop a lot on some headline but even that effect is becoming muted as Trump decides to declare victory every week or so.
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