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PaperclipPerfector  11hr ago (text post)   592 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for October 16, 2026

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I think it is pretty clearly Europe, but it's a slow grind rather than a continental blitzkrieg. The pro-Africa arguments seem to be imagining some kind of pitched battle where all the personnel of each side line up and attack until one side is eliminated, which, even allowing for general African incompetence, is not going to go Europe's way. But that's the least interesting interpretation of the question. The moment one side has to mount an amphibious ground assault, well, Europe is the only one that can manage that, so then the question is how long it takes 1939 Europe's best and brightest to reverse-engineer enough 2026 tech to catch up, and there's no particular time-pressure for Europe here: they're getting stronger every day, while every African sortie depletes munitions they'll never be able to replenish.

I think Europe's only Achilles' heel is if the campaign turns into another Scramble for Africa and the various powers begin to compete amongst themselves. Even if the rules forbid explicit internecine conflict (as otherwise I think the invasion of Poland and France are simply delayed and we return to approximately the original timeline) unless they also compel absolute cooperation, Europe's greatest enemy will -- as usual -- be other Europeans.

I think Europe's only Achilles' heel is if the campaign turns into another Scramble for Africa and the various powers begin to compete amongst themselves. Even if the rules forbid explicit internecine conflict (as otherwise I think the invasion of Poland and France are simply delayed and we return to approximately the original timeline) unless they also compel absolute cooperation, Europe's greatest enemy will -- as usual -- be other Europeans.

That's the unstated assumption that makes this such a good scissor statement.

Europe's disunity at the time was such that within five years of 1939 they would be collectively incapable of wiping their own asses without American support.

Africa's disunity now makes the idea of a cross-continental campaign rather unrealistic.

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