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No, it's not — replacing itself, that is. It may have above replacement birth rates, but youth retention, though better than in the past, is still too low. Most of what high-fertility Reds are doing is the job of producing future Blue Tribers that Blues themselves won't do.
I'm struggling to be charitable and not call you outright delusional, but this is nonsense. At best, you appear to be living in an incredibly unrepresentative bubble and mistaking a few superficial aesthetic trends for a serious cultural shift.
First, it ignores the single biggest and enduring trend in intergenerational political migration: the widening sex gap. Young women age 18–29 have gone massively to the left. (It'll be hard for Red Tribe to keep up those above replacement birth rates when >80% of fertile women are solidly Blue Tribe.) And, as many have noted, the corresponding 18-29 year old men haven't so much shifted toward Red as they've shifted to being anti-establishment, going in all kinds of directions, many swinging between "centrist," Red-Populist, and Blue-Populist. Yes, there may have been a brief Red "cultural ripple," driven by tech-adjacent young men using online platforms that bypassed the MSM, and which successfully rebranded elements of conservative or traditionalist mindsets as edgy and anti-system; and, instead of adopting classic religious conservatism (which, as you well know, is the actual Red Tribe core, and where its fertility advantage comes from), embraced skepticism of institutional "wokeness" and aggressive anti-establishment rhetoric… which mostly turned into an aesthetic of fitness and financial independence. To the extent this was even a "cultural moment," it peaked in 2024 — as we're seeing right now.
Watching college football and listening to Tyler Childers or Darius Rucker does not a Red Triber make. And the stats I've seen simply do not support your claims in the slightest. Your fantasy of Red Tribe simply outbreeding the Blues is just that: pure, deluded fantasy.
It doesn't, unless you carve out high-fertility religious sub-populations - and as far as I can see the only such group who are both fiscally and demographically sustainable are Mormons. No state has statewide fertility above replacement - the red states are just dying out more slowly than the blue ones.
No, a regression analysis of fertility vs thé Republican base gives a white Republican TFR of about 2.2, regardless of how you input the numbers. There are no states above replacement because even the reddest states are not 100% R(and democrats in places like Oklahoma and Utah are disproportionately from very low fertility parts of their coalition, like LGBT).
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