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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 9, 2026

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Note that we don't use fossil fuels for "space travel" - the price point for that is well above the level where it's worth synthesizing better fuel. But I think your argument is fine if you just consider the industrial revolution instead, which was deeply dependent on cheap fossil fuels.

If we look at just humanity, society is 20k year old versus 100k years of behavioral modernity (or more!) so that's a rough 1/5 chance. If we extend to all of hominid history (~2 million years) now it looks more like 1/100. If we compare to the intelligent clades, with have maybe 2/6 clades (counting humans and LLMs against corvids, cetaceans, cephalopods, and elephants) and therefore maybe a 1/300 chance. Then compress to just the amount of time where we have space travel and we're looking at a 1/60,000 chance of getting a dominant intelligent species likely to develop space travel.

This is more of a quibble, but I don't think this is the right way to look at things at all. Suppose, hypothetically, that all intelligent species were guaranteed to produce a spacefaring civilization after some time, following the same exponential rate of improvement as us. Then for any level of technology you could always look back and say "gosh, it took us [X years] to get here and we've only had [technology] for [Y << X years] - the chances we would develop [technology] were minuscule!" When, in fact, the actual probability is 100%.

You really do just have to Do The Work and analyze all the specific factors you brought up. Intelligence level, temperament, access to resources, climate, lifespan, population size - in how many of these respects did we indeed "get lucky"? Also, did we manage to soldier on through despite certain disadvantages? What are the limits of the resourcefulness of an intelligent species determined to claw its way up the tech ladder? e.g. imagine some other civilization thinking "no way could we have reached the space age without our 1,000 year lifespans - trying to condense learning into 30-40 years would make scientific progress impossible!"