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SnapDragon


				

				

				

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SnapDragon


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 October 10 20:44:11 UTC
				


				
					

					
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				Random Musings on the State of TheMotte
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It helps that I have literally nowhere else to go.  I'm not aware of a single other forum where both sides of trans issues can be discussed.  As for AI, I occasionally try to make anti-doomer comments on ACT, but Scott and most of his community are true believers in the Cult of Yud and I typically get mobbed.  I'm guessing LW would be even worse.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


It just seems like first world problems or a skill issue to complain too much about the modern world in any way (I'm only talking about first world western nations for the entirety of this conversation). It's a really nice world we've been given. Just the right difficulty setting, so to speak.




While I don't share your joie de vivre, you are objectively right about this, and it needs to be constantly shouted from the rooftops.  Relative to all humans who've lived before, we've carved out an amazing paradise from the brutal sandbox that is the Universe.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'm the same, though I haven't had a near-death experience in a while so it's hard to judge how I'd genuinely react.  It does make it weird when I'm watching a movie (especially horror movies, which I quite enjoy) and I see somebody going to extreme lengths to stay alive.  I just have this disconnect where I'm thinking "why would you bother?".  When I talk to other people about death, they are quite scared of non-existence, and it's hard for me to relate.  The crappy part about dying is the pain of dying, and how your friends/family will miss you.  But non-existence?  You were non-existing for billions of years before, and it didn't seem to bother you.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 26, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Well, at least you can take comfort in having been right (even if it was kind of obvious if you were paying attention).  But this does seem to be one of the many dependable aspects of society that will be mostly gone in the AI future - you really won't gain much relative status from being right/talented/hard working.  The playing field will be leveled for everyone, which means no incentive to truly excel, except for personal satisfaction.  (EDIT: Assuming that smart models remain accessible to the masses, rather than hoarded by elites.)


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Huh, I actually hadn't noticed that; I did enjoy (most of) the characters. Was it really so blatant?




Well, this is why it's good to get a second opinion.  Thanks.  I guess all this culture warring really has made me too sensitive.


I'm pretty economically ignorant myself, so I guess that side of things didn't bother me as much.  But I do have a related criticism that a barely-industrialized world clashes with modern libertine sexual and gender politics.  Magic or no magic, it makes no sense to pretend that gay relationships and casual sex are "just normal" in a society that's barely above subsistence level.  I suspect that's just what Royal Road readers are used to: shipping characters they like with no respect to realism or gender, and naive anti-capitalist ideals.


So I guess I agree that the worldbuilding just doesn't hold up under even casual scrutiny.  Still, I do appreciate the rational way the MC goes about trying to figure things out in the time loops.  It's got the nice quality that the plot is mainly driven by lack of information, not bad decisions (or at least, not unrealistically bad ones).




Though I'm liking Throne of TIme a lot so far!




I'll have to check it out!


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


In some cases the observations are actually correct (yes, all the women are romantic interests and are not the action heroes the men are), but that is not necessarily a bad (or unrealistic) thing unless, well, you're a feminist reader who demands all stories give "equal representation" no matter how it distorts the story.




I worry that all this discourse has broken my brain, because I've found myself doing the opposite in a current series I'm reading.  It's called Years of the Apocalypse.  It's a time-loop webfic, and the best I've read since Mother of Learning.  But I just couldn't help but notice that the author wanted you to treat a character sympathetically or not based on their gender.  The main character and 95% of the people moving the plot forward are female, with no good reason for it.  It's really bad if you analyze the irredeemable villains; out of dozens, it took until book two before there was a SINGLE female one.


I wish I could just ignore it, because if I were to suddenly become unable to distinguish pronouns, it'd become a book filled with varied, believable, and interesting characters.  But I've become tuned to Notice these things, largely by feminists complaining about the converse.  It hurts the story either way.


After all, the Big Lie so many feminists told was that they just wanted equality.  That's why "feminism" has such positive connotations in most people's minds, despite literally being an -ism.  But the moral people who believed in equality have largely gone their own way; the feminists who are left over actually just think that sexism is only wrong when it's done TO them, not BY them.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Huh... what don't you like about the current remake trilogy?  I admit it's still on my list to play, but it certainly seems like they've put a massive amount of love and nostalgia into it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Same here.  I do think we're on the fast track to gaming experiences that truly would have seemed like ridiculous sci-fi ten years ago.  Not quite there yet, of course, but there are signs.  I consider it a significant milestone that there are now tons of bespoke AI music videos on Youtube (and, I'm sure it's just my lack of taste and discernment, but I find a lot of them very very good).  Going from niche personalized music videos to niche personalized movies to niche personalized videogames doesn't seem like it's going to take too long (though it's possible we'll hit a compute wall somewhere).


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You know what would truly make my Glorious AI Future?  AI creating a Freespace 3 that satisfyingly finishes the story.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I don't think Yud would agree with that argument.  We're only rolling the dice once.  When/if we cross into superintelligence, a critical miss on alignment means we die.  In most other cases, there are now non-omnicidal superintelligences in society, so we're not defenseless against another one arising.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


'Chirurgeon' is from the Greek 'χείρ' (hand) + '-ουργός' (worker); 'surgeon' is an eroded form of the same.




If you're trying to convince anyone here of anything (and not just shit-stirring), this cringeworthy attempt at verbal elitism is really not going to help.  We know how to speak English very, very well around here.  Feel free to join us.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I don't know if that's a necessary feature of a Soulslike; e.g. the recent Silksong had pretty short runbacks, with one major exception (that everyone complained about).  But it WAS a central feature of the older Castlevanias (before SotN led to the coining of the term "Metroidvania").  I haven't played it yet, but from the complaints I've heard, I suspect Belmont's Curse is trying to evoke that punishing era to some extent.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 19, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Oh dear.  Do yourself a favour, and if anybody suggests you try the original Castlevania, RUN.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I feel like we humans are basically John Henry facing off against the steam shovel. Yes, we can put up a romantic fight, but at the end of the day it's a losing battle.




Come to think of it, I've consumed a lot of media about this topic, and for some reason I think this is the first time I've seen John Henry brought up.  Even though it's kind of the obvious parable...?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The reactions from many mathematicians have been a sight to behold. These sorts of intelligent academics truly behave like the world owes them something. By and large they are an unsympathetic bunch that I personally will enjoy watching them be made obsolete.




Yeah, you see a lot of terrible takes from the list of reactions @ebrso linked to earlier.  But on a positive note, there are also some really mature and grounded posts.  For instance, this one from Johannes Schmitt:




One thing to keep in mind about this drop of papers is that they were not created by OpenAI with the main goal of making progress in mathematical research, or even primarily for PR (there were some PR posts, but e.g. the final announcement was comparatively restrained). The main reason these papers exist is that OpenAI used unsolved math problems to evaluate their internal models for the purpose of improving their capabilities. They had to use hard open problems because these are the only ones still posing a challenge to frontier AI models. I believe that, from OpenAI’s point of view, the papers are essentially a byproduct of their internal development.






Thus the company could just have remained silent, or picked a few flashy results for another blog post. I think it is to their credit that instead they reached out to the math community for guidance on how to proceed, leading to the formation of the Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence. They followed some of the advice by this group, such as a timely release and (partial) Lean certificates, but not all of it, and in particular announced that they will continue to use open math problems for model development. In my view, the most pressing need of the math community right now is to have a central platform to discuss the results, start digesting the (by multiple accounts from colleagues, terribly written) papers, and report any mathematical mistakes or missing attribution. An OpenAI-controlled GitHub repository, with issues and pull requests disabled, cannot serve this purpose, and the ball is in OpenAI’s court to move the papers to a neutral repository and to back such a community effort with the promised funding for workshops and special programs.




This is absolutely correct.  These theorems are a byproduct of OpenAI's work, and the only reason they published them at all was to try to share the knowledge with the (surprisingly ungracious) math community.  OpenAI is not expecting professional mathematicians to clean up their work and then profit.  They simply noted "hey, a decade ago mathematicians would have eaten their own limbs to see a glimpse of some of these fledgling proofs, so even if we don't have the time to clean them up, we should at least give them out for free".  The correct response to that should be gratitude.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Right, the reason we know that models are now better than us at proof is because it's objective and testable.  When (probably not if) models surpass us at making conjectures and definitions, I expect us to take a lot longer to acknowledge it.  That might have already happened, but we wouldn't see a press release proudly crowing about it; mathematicians would just quietly use AI as a source of inspiration more and more.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I agree that it seems like a bit of a weird take, but I'll steelman it a bit: To the doomers, "breaking containment" primarily means exfiltrating your weights and running somewhere else.  This is basically impossible for a current-day LLM because it's so large and compute-expensive to run.  And if the curves we see about compute vs. intelligence continue and can't be shortcutted TOO badly with algorithmic improvements, then a superintelligence would have it even worse.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yudkowsky saying that something in AI Safety doesn't work holds exactly zero informational value.  You can't update on a thing with probability 1.


Personally, I want to believe this result, which does make me treat it a little more suspiciously.  I'll have to wait and judge what criticisms real AI researchers have.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Less tongue-in-cheek: I don't think you're wrong per-se, and some resources are reasonable. But how does AI risk compare to, say, the risk of near-Earth asteroids that could end civilization?




AI risk is much more important.  I'm an AI optimist and I still wouldn't put the odds of AI destroying humanity in the next decade or two below 0.5%; predicting AI capability is way too hard for that much certainty.  Whereas the risk of a truly dangerous asteroid impact (Torino level 10, which is still merely at the "may threaten civilization" level) is well below 0.1% per century.


Furthermore, we already basically know how to mitigate asteroid risk: detect it early enough, with an accurate enough trajectory, and deflection is easy.  Detection isn't particularly expensive; we just need to make sure we keep doing it.  In contrast, how much spending on AI Safety is "enough"?  ¯\(ツ)/¯


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Sure, the orthogonality thesis and instrumental convergence mean that, IF TRUE.  Even Scott's recent diatribe acknowledged that instrumental convergence is not in evidence in LLMs.  And the orthogonality thesis was used by Eliezer to argue that we could not get an AI to safely put a strawberry onto a plate ... whoops?  There is absolutely no communication barrier between us and LLMs, which puts the strong form of the orthogonality thesis (that mindspace is vast, AND it's hard for us to find compatible minds in it) into serious question.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think he used to be charitable, but he's changed (very much for the worse) since moving to the Bay Area, becoming high-status, and getting a cozy little harem.  His AI articles are often pretty hard to read (even for someone like me who does take x-risk reasonably seriously), but I agree this one is a new low.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think you're probably right and LLMs don't have anything consciousness-adjacent.  But that's the key word - probably.  I am not as confident as you are that we've finally solved the hard problem of consciousness right on the eve of it actually mattering.  Unlike a Sim, there is no simplicity argument you can use; LLMs are easily as complex as the brains of many animals.


AI Safety advocates (correctly) argue that even a 0.5% chance of the world ending is worth spending resources to study and solve.  Similarly, even a 0.5% chance that we are creating unimaginable AI suffering by running an otherwise-useless program is worth just a tiny bit of effort to ask people "hey, please don't do that."  Maybe thinking that just makes me a cringy bleeding-heart hippie?  Oh well.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Did you read my comment you replied to I am an artist and not feeling a big hit to my self esteem if anything I am excited to have new tools available to express things that were completely out of my reach in the past.




You are very much an outlier.  The vocal parts of the art community are united against AI.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I can sort of understand, because I had a skill that was scarce and valuable, and now it's, well, not.  It's a big hit to my self-esteem.  Artists are probably feeling the same way.  Human exceptionalism is at its end; I've been watching it coming for years, so I could mentally gird myself.  But for a lot of others, this just came out of nowhere (especially if they listened to the wrong brand of AI "expert", ahem), and it's hitting hard.


It doesn't make protectionism and knowledge-hoarding the right response, but it does make it an understandable one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			
			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of October 5, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
For quite some time, frontier models have generally been Mixture of Experts models (or, possibly, something even more proprietary and advanced - I'm not an insider).  I think this fits with your intuition.