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Notes -
I think honestly, since “transition” as a set of medical procedures requires lots of affirmation of that identity including visits to doctors, consenting to various drugs and procedures, and legal name changes, it seems like you could establish a reasonable point in this process at which you can make a reasonable case that this person is so seriously committed to becoming a member of the other gender.
I could make a case for a couple years of treatments and a legal name and gender change on legal documents being pretty definitive here. For me, if you’ve been in the process of becoming female (including hormones) for five years, and have changed your legal name and gender on your major legal documents (birth certificate, drivers license or state issued ID, passport) that level of commitment should be considered enough.
But my major concern re bathrooms and changing rooms is that if we make “identity as a woman” too easy to get, that cisgender men will abuse this to enter pretty intimate female spaces where they can use their power to rape women. This is, for me the trust issue, not that transgender people want to rape, but that cis men will use transgendered women as a loophole.
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