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Notes -
I think Desantis has a better shot than most people give him credit for. He’s basically the GOP redemption arc, if you like. Trump might excite the base, but he’s got just as many people — even in republican circles— who want nothing to do with him. I expect the negative reaction to grow after the indictments, as this would be hard to justify in a candidate for any office. I’m not sure if Trump can legally be president, but the thought that we’d have a president of the United States governing while having a felony conviction is uncommon, and no one has ever done it. Trump is thus reduced to a third party spoiler, not really a candidate in the traditional sense.
Biden has several negatives. He hasn’t yet curbed inflation to a degree noticed on main street. He seems to be suffering from dementia. His administration is inept. He’s been hung out to dr6 several times by the courts for illegally trying to order things done without going through channels (once in mandatory vaccination through OSHA, once in the student loan relief). There really aren’t things that Biden can say he’s done for the general public that helped anyone. He won the first time as a near stealth candidate (helped greatly by the perception that it was about COVID) avoiding impromptu events and interviews, not holding rallies. He can’t get away with that without COVID, and given some of his gaffes during planned speeches (at one point looking for a long dead colleague in the audience) I don’t think they can hide his dementia at a rally.
So really as it stands, there’s Desantis — who’s competent, Trump — who is a populist who says things that the mainstream rejects, and Biden — who doesn’t seem too aware of his surroundings.
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