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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 27, 2023

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I am always slightly amused when people cite fluctuations in poll numbers as proof of any politicians' overall chances well before the election, especially since polls have had a rough few years missing some election outcomes in the late-stage polling.

In the leadup to the 2022 election the polls had Desantis with a commanding lead over Crist but gave him somewhere around 52-54% of the vote.

He won with 60%. Okay, 59.4, but who is counting?

There is very little question that Desantis owns the Florida vote, which is a hefty stick to swing around.

Does this mean Desantis is inherently going to overperform? Nah.

Has Desantis been consistently underestimated, over and over again, by people who WANT to believe he's a buffoon and thus keep stepping into 'traps' that ultimately raise Desantis' profile?

Yes.

Trump is the big unpredictable variable in all this, and I'm curious to see what Desantis' team's containment strategy is.

And it just got interesting with NY handing down an Indictment and Desantis signalling he is somewhat taking Trump's side in all this.

Florida officials are obviously livid and the new board is seeking legal redress. I won't comment on the legality of the whole mess because I don't know, but even if the state has a good case against Disney, it doesn't really matter. First, the RCID was a public body and thus subject to sunshine laws. The whole thing was done out in the open—the agreement was posted online so you didn't even need a records request, the meeting adopting the agreement was public, etc.—so the only excuse DeSantis has for getting into this mess was not anticipating some kind of funny business and not noticing that anything was wrong until weeks after the deal was done.

I'm more genuinely surprised that Disney would take an action that would IMMEDIATELY raise the ire of the incoming board in such a way that they now KNOW that they're not being dealt with in good faith.

Indeed, what's to stop the new board from simply ignoring the agreement at the next meeting and daring Disney to bring the heat.

This is basically a sovereignty fight, and the way our governmental system currently works, a state government will win that fight, every time. Unless Disney cedes its property to the Federal Government or something and we know that ain't happening.

By all appearances, it now looks like Disney is actually afraid of what the new Commissioners might do. This isn't some flex on Disney's part showing off their authority, this was a move that at best is a delay tactic (maybe hoping for a new governor?) and at worst an invitation to throw down, which is just not a good idea when Disney has literal billions upon billions of dollars of capital stuck to the ground in the state.