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Notes -
I think the issue is going to be the jury.
There’s obviously a big problem seating a jury on a case of the former president in the first place. You can’t accept anyone who voted in 2020 — they would have had to pay attention to Trump enough to form an opinion on him (whether for or against) in order to vote. That’s 55% of the city of New York before we even start. Add in the people who work for Trump in varying capacities, are working for suppliers to Trump properties, or live in a Trump building, and we’re down to 25% of the population of New York. This is before dealing with the hardship problems (there’s no way you can have the defendant actively campaigning and not sequester the jury), the length of the likely trial (and Trump might well want to go for delay of game here). It’s a small pool of candidates.
You’ll also have a small chance of a mistrial. A juror got removed from the OJ case for writing a book about being on the OJ jury. This trial is bigger. There are also lots of people very motivated to tamper with the jury. Add in the potential for things seen on the drive to the court biasing the jury (a protest? A bank of boarded up buildings in anticipation of a guilty verdict? A courtroom outburst?). The probability is low, but I think it’s a bit higher just because of the profile and motivation here.
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