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The libertarian Cato institute points out that the US has been losing international scientists in recent years whereas not only has China gained but so has "non-US OECD" countries. The latter is code for Europe and AU/NZ/CA.
The immediate cause is probably the misguided and arguably racist "China initiative" which essentially led to a witch-hunt against ethnic Chinese people. But I suspect domestic factors in China and Europe are also responsible. Both have been ramping up R&D spending in recent years and visa policies in Europe are often more favorable for researchers than American policies are. Easier to get and easier to stay.
It is no exaggeration to say that most of STEM innovation in US academia is now being carried out by foreign-born people. So this development should worry Americans. I also think many people in the West underestimate how much genuine innovation there is in China. Viewing data from the Nature Index, which tracks elite science production, it isn't clear that China is far behind anymore. If at all. In areas like EV batteries, China is now ahead of the West. Progress in their semiconductor industry has been faster than even many insiders had expected.
I still think the US has a series of unique advantages over its competitors, but falling prey to scare-mongering campaigns and McCarthyite tactics isn't going to capitalise on them.
This may be true overall, but I think it's somewhat exaggerated because what we discuss as "STEM innovation" is colored by high-profile tech companies that generally broadcast their research far and wide. If you're talking OpenAI and Google, sure. But there are significant classes of employers that are restricted to either citizens or at least permanent residents (green cards). SpaceX isn't hiring Chinese nationals. The largest employer of mathematicians in the US only hires citizens and generally holds its research very close to the chest, as do the national labs.
I think an unbiased sample of "STEM innovations" is harder to measure in real-time than it sounds. But also that concern about US research output is not necessarily misplaced.
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