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I think you need to think long and hard what you mean by "Trump Supporters" and "win" here. The simple fact that the race is effectively between MAGA: Original Recipe and MAGA: Hard Seltzer with nary an old-fashioned Patrician, Evangelical, or Romney-esque moderate in sight is in my eyes an illustration just how thoroughly Trump's Supporters have already won.
As I wrote back in September, The war for the soul of the Grand old Party is over and the populists have won. Sure, there are still a few members of the old establishment like Mitch McConnel hanging around, but at this stage they're just running out the clock. When they get replaced, they will be replaced by guys who came up through the Tea-Party and MAGA movements.
Likewise, I find it telling that the only criticism of DeSantis that seems to have really gained any real traction in conservative spaces is the suggestion that he might be too "establishment", or that he lacks the necessary self-destructive streak to fight the beast. But this is were also many of the choices that yourself and other posters here have described as "unforced errors" and "stupid stunts" start to look like the products of an astute tactical mind, because when the accusation that DeSantis is an establishment republican is leveled the counter that "would an 'establishment Republican' have picked a fight with Disney, or bused economic migrants to Martha's Vinyard" is already on the way.
Well, there are old-fashioned Patrician, Evangelical, and Romney-esque moderates in sight, they're a bunch of the other candidates in the republican primary. But first-past-the-post voting means they don't have a chance since they're not the established front-runners, so no one will vote for them. I'm not sure how best to measure popularity objectively.
It's something of a Keynesian beauty contest, in that people don't want to waste their vote, and want the candidate to be able to win the general election, so they have to think about how everyone else will vote, not merely whoever their favorite.
Name 3, Heck name one that users here could be reasonably expected to recognize without the aid of google, and then post how they're polling compared to Trump and/or Desantis.
While I concede the possibility that a dark horse candidate may emerge (of those declared my money would be on Scott or Haley who are both still at least MAGA adjacent), as it stands this is a race between Trump and DeSantis. No one else is even close.
Most of them could be categorized to some extent as evangelical, almost everyone comes across as more pious than Trump. But I can't name any who are clearly moderates that could be expected to be recognized, as they're irrelevant.
Everyone except Trump and Desantis are doing absolutely miserably in the polls, and mostly only have a chance if one of the frontrunners withdraws or dies.
I wasn't trying to say they had a chance, just that they existed. I don't know that we disagree, really.
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