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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 5, 2023

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To get evolution started, you need a self-replicating molecular organism and a stable incubation environment in which it can proliferate for a long time. How complex do you think such a thing would be? Why haven’t we been able to recreate this from non living matter with modern technology? I suspect such a self-replicating organism would have to be unbelievably complicated.

Molecular-scale mechanisms sounds exactly like something that can relatively easily arise randomly (less parts) but hard to create on purpose (with no molecular-scale manipulators).

Fighter jets are the opposite - large-scale forces would be disrupting any intermediate stages of genesis, and it needs more diverse environments to assemble its different parts (do you think the alloys for its fuselage, the upholstering of its seats and the transistors in its electronics can all be created under the same circumstances?).

Simple but hard / complex but easy.

The question about how hard it can arise randomly would seem to depend in large part on the amount of information contained in very simple replicators.

If you go with the RNA world hypothesis, we'd have to work out how common replicating strings of RNA are, and so how likely a random string is to come up.

The anthropic principle probably takes care of this, though. (It might not take care of universe level fine tuning without supposing a multiverse, I think.)

From the Wikipedia article on abiogenesis:

“The prevailing scientific hypothesis is that the transition from non-living to living entities on Earth was not a single event, but a process of increasing complexity involving the formation of a habitable planet, the prebiotic synthesis of organic molecules, molecular self-replication, self-assembly, autocatalysis, and the emergence of cell membranes. Many proposals have been made for different stages of the process“

That sounds very complicated. Many different parts are involved with many different mechanisms, which had to be in place at the right time in many different stages.

Alright, now look up all the technological processes involved in creating every part of a fighter jet, and consider that the less compact it is, the less effort it takes to scatter one part from another.

large-scale forces would be disrupting any intermediate stages of genesis,

Why wouldn’t forces work to disrupt intermediate stages of the genesis of a microorganism? You don’t think it would happen spontaneously, in one step, do you?

and it needs more diverse environments to assemble its different parts

A self-replicating molecular organism has very different parts assembled in a very specific way. Why wouldn’t it need a diverse range of assembly environments, if a fighter jet would?