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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   33095 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023

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This comment says nothing. All this money is negligible compared to the size of the American economy. It “sounds big”, that’s all. And I think it’s important, now and again, for any great power to show the world who’s boss. Looking at historical imperial lifespans it’s likely the US still has at least fifty years on top.

All this money is negligible compared to the size of the American economy.

The industrial capacity is the biggest bottleneck. It doesn't matter how much money the US spends, there won't be enough artillery shells. The US is emptying it stock of air defence on the border to Iran, which clearly strengthens Iran's ability to hit back with missiles. Ukraine had thousands of SAM before the war which now are largely expended. Replacing s300 missiles with 5 million dollar Patriot missiles isn't only expensive, it requires those missiles to be manufactured. Add on the 250 s300 launchers and there is both economic and supply chain woes. Meanwhile, China outpaces the US in SAM production. The resources to train troops is strained. This war is causing a major NATO-supply chain shock. After three decades of failed wars, the US can't simultaneously keep the war in Ukraine going, dominate the middle east and keep China back. Latin American countries and the middle east have clearly moved away from the American orbit, with the US tied down in Taiwan and Ukraine.

As for cost, the cost has been enormous. It isn't just the tens of billions spent on weapons so far, it is going to be tens of billions per year for decades. Add 5% interest on these loans and the cost is significant. The inflation, caused by this war combined with the raised interest rates to combat it, far surpasses the direct cost of the weapons.

While empires don't die quickly, the US is clearly in a latter phase as it is stuck continuously fighting wars on the periphery while not being able to expand. Empires tend to decline when problems that need to be dealt with outstrips the ability to handle them. The Russia situation piled more problems on the US.

The inflation, caused by this war combined with the raised interest rates to combat it, far surpasses the direct cost of the weapons.

US inflation was high before the war and it has fallen during the war: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=167K2

It isn't just the tens of billions spent on weapons so far, it is going to be tens of billions per year for decades.

This is nothing for the US.

The inflation, caused by this war combined with the raised interest rates to combat it, far surpasses the direct cost of the weapons.

The inflation was caused by money printing during COVID. The war has contributed very little to inflation, at least in the US.

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