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Notes -
This shows spread occurred at the market; it does not show the disease originated there. If you look at the early cases it looks rather like a population map, which is not surprising.
Even if true, this is not evidence which distinguishes a lab leak from a market event. I see no reason to believe that "two lab leaks" is less likely than "two separate natural zoonotic events at the market".
This is ridiculous. A leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology puts even greater blame squarely on China. There is no way they prefer a lab leak hypothesis (at least not a leak from a Chinese lab; they already tried to blame the US Army) to a market hypothesis.
If I’m understanding @token_progressive’s point correctly, shouldn’t we expect “two separate lab leaks that spread directly to the same market” to be less likely than “two separate natural zoonotic events at the market”.
The latter only encodes information regarding origin, while former encodes information regarding origin and spread.
As we add more stipulations, the probability must fall, no?
I don't see why. We don't know any of the probabilities involved. Most particularly we do not know that the "probability of two separate natural zoonotic events" is less than or equal to the "probability of two lab-created zoonotic events".
Then I recommend following up on the sources I linked. I am not a scientist with expertise in this area; I am just doing my best to link to them and summarize their arguments.
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