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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 12, 2023

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Russia's nukes are fine, their submarines are fine and their airforce is lightly attrited. Their army is still mostly intact, even if it has been greatly weakened.

I think I see some "citation needed" here. Probably their subs aren't too affected by this conflict, though how active that fleet is would probably be pretty secret. The NATO sub fleets might have an idea, but I don't think they're talking. Not gonna bet either way on their nuke arsenal, though I will note that the maintenance quality evident on the high-tech weapons they've tried to bring to bear in Ukraine has not been too impressive.

"Where is the Russian Air Force?" has been the millionbillion-ruble question in this whole war. Pre-war, every serious defense analyst I could find expected them to systematically dismantle Ukraine in something that looked like the US Gulf War 1. They had the assets on paper to do it. Instead, they've been missing in action. Given the efforts Russia has gone to so far, I somehow doubt they're all sitting in hangers somewhere in perfect condition, with skilled pilots standing by to run complex missions with them as soon as Putin gives the order. It's all speculation on exactly what is going on, but I bet that either their maintenance has been such shit that only a fraction are airworthy, or they are terrified of losing a substantial fraction of them to Ukrainian air defense or otherwise looking incompetent, possibly both.

think I see some "citation needed" here.

There is no great mystery here. Russian conventional army is very mediocre because they are spending enormous amounts of their military budget (which isn't even that high) keeping up with the latest nuclear capabilities and missile delivery systems.

"Where is the Russian Air Force?" has been the millionbillion-ruble question in this whole war.

Yeah but no, again there is no great mystery. Their air assets were definitely present early in the war when they expected a quick victory with a small force. But Russian Air Force is small, and is not really fit for fighting against capable air defense. That is what happens when you have a limited military budget and spend it on very expensive nuclear systems. None of this was unknown.

Pre-war, every serious defense analyst I could find expected them to systematically dismantle Ukraine in something that looked like the US Gulf War 1

Because they expected an invasion with near full power of the Russian army rolling across the border. This is not the invasion that actually took place and so what is the point of taking attrition to your valuable air assets when it is not going to accomplish anything because the army is not suited for it?