This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
We were comparing budgets to ascertain the likelihood of victory. Supplying an amount far greater than russia's military budget is no problem for nato. The capabilities ukraine are already getting are superior to those of russian armaments.
Mearsheimer believes europe has no agency, he writes for a purely american audience. In his view, Ukraine, poland, and the rest of europe are just chips to be exchanged to hopefully recreate the cold war. Even in purely power-realists terms, he didn’t get the memo that the russian federation is far weaker than the soviet union and the EU, and therefore incapable of maintaining the USSR’s sphere of influence. You’ll understand why a european doesn’t find his perspective helpful or convincing.
Yes and no - some parts of ISR, ATGMs are superior. Tanks like the 2A6 are roughly on-par with Russia, other weapons were obsolete decades ago like Leopard 1s. Furthermore, budgets are not the primary decisive factor in wartime, as our adventures in Afghanistan can attest.
This is a mischaracterization of what he's saying. Mearsheimer said that the Russians probably weren't strong enough to occupy Ukraine but that it was a core strategic interest to prevent Ukraine joining NATO so Putin would do whatever it takes to prevent it. Even if Russia does not have the power to conquer Ukraine, they do have the power to destroy it.
Mearsheimer has been consistently right about many important topics years in advance: the Iraq War being a disaster, US-China competition intensifying. Ignoring Mearsheimer is precisely how Europe and the US got into this mess, which has left everyone poorer and less safe. It's like watching a blind man running around, crashing into things, scorning the sighted watchers (Kennan and Mearsheimer) who warn him about electrical cables and walls.
https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf
That's blackmail and we must refuse. If they destroy ukraine, it's on them.
The EU is sensitive to potential threats near their home territory, that's why Ukraine will continue to be supported.
Equating of the world's sole superpower with some second rate regional power.
This is my favourite of the realist switcheroos. Ukraine is supposed to forget right and wrong, and yield to russian might. However, where the relationship between russia and the west is concerned, the same ten-to-one might differential is moot and russia has been unfairly wronged etc.
So, as the russians themselves said to the ukrainians, we don't have to listen to them, we have superior might. We'll do what we can, and russians will suffer what they must.
You seem to think that Russia is a second-rate power. They can demolish Western civilization in an afternoon. That is what their nuclear forces are designed to do. On the highest and most important level, Russia and the Western world are peers.
There is no 'suffer what they must' between peers, only suffering.
If you're right about the West being 10 times stronger, why didn't we go ahead with a no fly zone, send in ground troops? It'd be a cakewalk! Plus there's a lot of oil to liberate! But you know that's not true, you know perfectly well why we can't do that.
The real switcheroo is not Mearsheimer's 'great powers act in predictable ways, so it is not desirable to threaten a declining power in ways that will result in it lashing out' but your 'Russia is so weak that we can do whatever we like and never pay any consequences for our actions - but let's stay far away from the action and let other people do the fighting'.
Anyone can get the power to nuke the world: certainly the big european countries (germany, britain, france, italy) , who each have a gdp greater than russia, could. Yielding to the empty threats of this oversized Kim Jong Un will only make the world less safe.
Who is suffering more at the moment, us or russia?
Is it because doing the fighting ourselves would be mildly inconvenient? Much more comfortable to sit back, write a few checks, and empty old warehouses, while the flower of the (already demographically scarce) russian youth meets its muddy end.
Yes, correct. We're so much stronger, that we don't need to fight. The west's not even at 1% while russia is in full-on war mode, and we're winning. At the zenith of roman power, the legions didn't even need to show up. A minor client king's forces and fear of the legions was enough to contain any hostile tribe.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link