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No, I'm quite comfortable saying that when you optimize for X you're going to get X, not Y. If you want to pretend these people are meritocratic, they need to start optimizing for meritocracy, not diversity, very, very loudly.
As for the what-if, my answer is "I reject the hypothetical". If things were different they'd be different. That's not useful.
That wasn't your claim however. Your claim was stronger. That in this case you KNOW she was not the best choice. Yet you also admitted it was possible she was. Your own words contradict themselves. You can indeed optimize for X and still get Y. Perhaps rarely, perhaps less so depending on the extent of your optimization.
I'm just suggesting to adjust your language to hedge a little more in line with the rules of the forum. If you don't actually know something (and you own words indicate you do not) then reduce the strength of your certainty.
For example, I think it is highly likely that pretty much every politician is corrupt, given my direct experience and the various set of incentives involved. But that doesn't mean every single specific politician is. And if I don't have specific evidence for any specific politician I should probably not claim I KNOW they are corrupt. Here at least.
Yes, we know she wasn't the best choice, because we know -- because they say it all the time -- that they're optimizing for diversity. If the world was different, she could be the best. But the world isn't different. In this world, when you proclaim how important it is to increase BIPOC representation in film, we know you're aiming for BIPOC representation in film.
Who is they? Did the director say that? The casting agent? Is this always their priority? Do they never have other priorities that are higher? Remember we should be as specific as possible and not refer to the amorphous "they" here. Making sweeping generalizations is explicitly in the things we are supposed to avoid doing, so as to avoid waging the culture war.
I refuse to believe you've been isolated from all barrages in the culture war and do not see the obvious and repeatedly praised decision to cast the first ever proud negress as a Disney princess, the repetition of turning gingers into blacks, the immediate claims that it's racist if you hate the movie, the teary Twitter praise from celebrities so proud their daughters have someone they can look up to (because apparently they've never seen a minority protagonist before, as if you can't find black leads god damn everywhere).
I am not going to pretend people aren't doing what they're obviously doing. If your definition of charity demands I turn off my ability to recognize patterns I will not be charitable. Find a more reasonable definition.
Not my definition of charity. The rules of the forum, that say you should not generalize. If you make claims keep them specific. Again, I am not denying that you may be right, I am saying that saying you know (and then contradicting yourself) make it look like you are more interested in waging the culture war here than discussing it. Which is explicitly what we are not here to do.
I have not contradicted myself, I'm not sure why you think I have. There's no contradiction between "X is possible" and "X is false". I could be the world's best basketball player; I'm not, though. We can imagine situations that would make me the best, but they're not scenarios we're actually going through.
A conspicuously black, activist-championed woman race-swapped in for a ginger in a Disney film worked on by Lin-Manuel Miranda, praised repeatedly for how it's a reinvention of the classic story and a landmark victory for blacks..
Well, we can imagine scenarios where she's the best woman for the job! Easy. But rather than imagine alternate worlds, I'm going to stick with this one.
I know Germany is a country. It is possible Germany is not a country. These are mutually exclusive statements. If I said "I believe Germany is a country. It is possible Germany is not a country" that is fine. If you know something, then it is not possible for the reverse to be true. Because if it is then you did not KNOW.
And I submit, that you do not know for a fact that Marshall picked her for that reason. You may heavily suspect it. Your prior may be very high. But you cannot, absent specific knowledge of that specific decision know.
If I cast a black woman in a show, even if it were because she was the best pick, I would be a fool not to market it thusly. It's guaranteed press. Is Marshall a dedicated progressive or a calculating PR man? We don't KNOW. Because if he were the second he would not say so.
So there we go, in this world there is a scenario in which she was picked on talent and marketed on race. And we would not be able to tell the difference.
They're not exclusive at all. It is possible Germany isn't a country. For instance, Germany could be renamed Doinkland, we could change the definition of country, etc. There's no natural law that says Germany must be a country.
However, Germany is a country. Plenty of ways it could cease to be a country, but those ways haven't come about. They're possible, that's all.
As for the rest -- no, I know. I'm not going to deny myself the ability to acknowledge the world around me and the actors in it doing things. I reject your appeal to epistemic helplessness.
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