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Culture War Roundup for the week of July 10, 2023

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Her commentary about black babies and black doctors was just a complete hash, as if neither she nor her clerks have even a rudimentary grasp of statistics.

That "commentary" amounted to one sentence: "For high-risk Black newborns, having a Black physician more than doubles the likelihood that the baby will live, and not die." See page 23 of her dissent. The citation is to a brief filed by the American Association of Medical Colleges, which says exactly that, at page 4: "And for high-risk Black newborns, having a Black physician is tantamount to a miracle drug: it more than doubles the likelihood that the baby will live."

Justices uncritically citing statements in briefs is all too common, but it is not a phenomenon that is unique to any particular justice, nor to justices of any particular political persuasion. See this law review article from 2014, which says in part:

My research shows that 1 in every 5 citations to amicus briefs by the Justices in the last 5 years was used to support a factual claim-something I define as a theoretically falsifiable observation about the world. . . . And more than two-thirds of the time, the Justice citing the amicus brief for a fact cites only the amicus brief as authority-not any accompanying study or journal citation from within the brief.

Justices uncritically citing statements in briefs is all too common, but it is not a phenomenon that is unique to any particular justice, nor to justices of any particular political persuasion.

Irrelevant. The question is not whether, or how often, justices uncritically cite statements from amici. The question is whether the statements they write, cited or no, are so obviously stupid that someone at the level of Supreme Court Justice should be smart enough to at least suspect them, and thus perhaps examine them more closely. To be either so stupid or so partisan as to fall prey to "too good to check" is a serious flaw in a jurist. Justice Jackson really does seem to just be kind of stupid, but as I note above--it's possible she's just very good at being dishonest. Given the evidence before me, I don't see any other plausible alternatives.

It is indeed relevant, because you seem to be claiming that Jackson is more stupid or more partisan than is the norm, but the evidence you cite does not distinguish her from the norm. Hence, it seems to be an isolated demand for rigor.

the evidence you cite does not distinguish her from the norm

It does, in precisely the way I claimed. Not in the way you took it, which was wrong, which I have explained; sorry I can't explain it better, but I'm not sure it matters because I can't actually tell whether you have failed to understand, or are only pretending not to understand.

I hope no one reading this thread overlooks the parallels between your error and Jackson's, and the particular way you both approach your respective errors.

Are you aware that the source you cite misstates the statement made in the opinion and brief? Your source says: ""A moment’s thought should be enough to realize that this claim is wildly implausible. Imagine if 40% of black newborns died—thousands of dead infants every week. But even so, that’s a 60% survival rate, which is mathematically impossible to double. And the actual survival rate is over 99%."

But, the opinion and brief do not refer to all newborns. It refers to high-risk Black newborns. And, unless we know what "high risk" means, we can't actually know whether the claim is statistically impossible, can we?

Regardless, you have no data on how often justices uncritically cite factual claims, including stupid ones, so you have no basis for your claim other than your own preconceptions.

To be honest doesn’t she have clerks to proofread her work? Which would mean either her whole team missed this citation or she purposefully chose more inflammatory language and didn’t care if it was factually wrong.

Again, the citation was correct. The citation is to the amicus brief, and the amicus brief says exactly what the opinion says it does, so the citation is accurate. Whether they should have double checked the original source cited by the brief, I would say yes, but of course perhaps the original source sats that as well. And, I am entirely sure that it was the clerks who came up with the examples in the first place. She almost certainly wrote a draft and asked them to find examples to cite. That is basically what their job entails. (Sometimes, clerks write the entire first draft)

As for the claim that it is facially absurd, leaving aside that we don’t know that, since it refers to "high risk" newborns, and we don’t know what that means, the opinion was joined by two other justices, including Kagan. Which means that they, and their clerks, read it. Are they stupid, too?

Personally I think you are being obtuse. Anyone working in “elite” level occupations should notice that level of mathematical absurdity. It’s a freshman level mistake at a teachers college.

You are asking “high risks” to do a lot of unreasonable work. And I can’t even think of a sample population it could be of. Like failed abortion survival rate?

And I think you are being uncharitable. Because a bunch of people did miss it. Including, apparently, Justice Thomas, who spent pages and pages criticizing Jackson's opinion.

As for high risk, it is trivially easy to think of a population that qualifies: infants born with syndrome X. And that is a very likely explanation: Some researcher published a paper on some obscure syndrome with tiny numbers, and the advocates writing the brief that was cited in the opinion labeled infants born therewith "high risk infants."

Of course, the most likely explanation is that the source that is the basis for the claim in the brief that is the basis for the claim in the opinion showed that mortality was halved, not that survial was doubled, and the clerks should have caught that, IMHO, but my HO might be wrong, because numerous people didn't catch it.

Finally, I find it suspicious, but hardly surprising given the usual level of discourse on here, that no one here has attempted to engage with the substance of her opinion (nor, for that matter, any of the opinions) and instead are focusing one one sentence on page 23 of a 29-page opinion.

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Regardless, you have no data on how often justices uncritically cite factual claims, including stupid ones, so you have no basis for your claim other than your own preconceptions.

The basis for my claim is decades of reading SCOTUS opinions and listening to oral arguments. I gave just one specific example in answer to @cake's question. You responded with an irrelevant take on how often people cite amici. Jackson's opinion paints a false picture, reminiscent of common leftist confusion about how many unarmed black men are killed by police each year. Your white-knighting that does not improve Jackson's intelligence or her arguments.