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I think that a very common and under-discussed fallacy that is often engaged in by people of all sorts of political persuasions is overestimating the degree to which the future is predictable.
Imagine telling a Roman in 100 AD that 1500 years in the future, the world's best scientists would be from Britain and Germany. Or telling him that for much of the next 2000 years, Europe would be dominated by a religion created by Jews. Imagine telling a Persian in 500 AD that his country would soon come under the domination of a religion and political system created by Arab tribes. Imagine telling a Marxist in 1870 that Russia would be the first country in which communists would seize power. Or telling pretty much anyone in 1870 about antibiotics, nuclear weapons, the moon landings, and computers. Or telling a Jew in 1900 that 50 years later, the majority of Europe's Jews would have been killed. Or telling an American in 1980 that 10 years later, the USSR would no longer exist.
The course of political, social, and technological change is very hard to predict yet people keep being convinced by arguments of the "we must do X because then Y will surely happen" and "we must do X, otherwise Y will surely happen" variety. Of course it is possible to predict the future to some extent, and we must try to predict it. And it would be foolish for people to blind themselves to obvious threats just because things might turn out well. And sometimes, an easily predicted future does indeed come to be. For example, it was obvious in January 1945 that Germany was going to lose the war, and it did. But many other things that it seemed would obviously happen never did, and many things that no-one or almost no-one had predicted did happen.
Any political argument that is based in a deep conviction, as opposed to just speculation, about what is going to happen in the future is suspect. And arguments that go "we must do X because then Y will surely happen" (for example, "we must create communism because then people will live better") or "we must do X because otherwise Y will surely happen" (for example, "we must create a white ethnostate, otherwise white people will be destroyed") should be carefully examined. If one does not remember the constant failure of humans, all through the course of history, to predict future events, it is easy to be seduced by well-crafted narratives into believing that the causal connection between X and Y is more certain than it actually is.
The fallacy is probably common in part because for most people, thinking "I know what to do to make things better" feels better than thinking "I don't know what the fuck is going to happen". But also, many people simply do not have much understanding of history, so they just are not aware of how seldom people in the past have been able to successfully predict the future.
If in 1814 you told a Russian soldier marching through the streets of Paris, or a French Senator signing the Acte de déchéance de l'Empereur, that 150 years hence half of Europe would be governed from Moscow, they might have find it quite conceivable. The history of the Russian Empire for decades prior had been one of constant expansion, and now they had defeated the most powerful empire in Europe. If in 1990 you told a white South African that 30 years of black rule would lead quickly to the abandonment of Mandela's professed principles, and their replacement by anarchy, national deterioration, and the codification of discrimination against non-black citizens, this too would have been quite conceivable - he had plenty of examples on the continent to consider.
These appeals to nuance and caution tend very often to be recipes for paralysis and the suspension of critical thinking, usually with the aim of avoiding drawing conclusions about the future that the appellant finds unsavory. Yes, certain radical events are impossible to predict. But it's futile to assume that some radical event is bound to happen that will make all future extrapolations suspect. Very often you can make reasonable predictions of what's going to happen in the future because you have decades or centuries of data regarding geopolitical conditions and human behavior to draw from, and I think those predictions are usually true. Obviously it gets shakier the further out into the future you go (I will never make any claims about what America is going to look like 200 years hence), but political arguments for a paltry few years or a couple of decades are perfectly fine.
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