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A 126 page legal analysis of section 3 of amendment 14 of the constitution was released yesterday, arguing that Donald Trump, among others, is ineligible for public office, including the presidency. The authors are conservative, active in the Federalist society.
For reference, the relevant part of the constitution is
Among the arguments made were that it is legally self-executing—that is, it applies, like the 35 year old minimum age, without an explicit system to handle it to be set up by congress. Further, they think that people at almost every step along the process, from state officials deciding who goes on the ballots, to those capable of bringing an Amendment 25 complaint have a duty to ensure that this provision is fulfilled.
In reference to Trump, they argued that the events on and surrounding January 6th intending to overturn the election would constitute "insurrection or rebellion" as understood at the time of the passing of the amendment.
I can't see this not being important, but I'm not sure how exactly it'll play out—we could get court cases, possibly going up to the supreme court (no idea how that would play out). We may see state officials refuse to put Trump on the ballot. I expect this to lead to a substantial increase in support for Trump if this is seen as illegitimate, as it undoubtedly will be. At the same time, if this happens during the primary elections, and Trump is not even on the ballot in some states, it might make it significantly easier for another candidate to become the Republican nominee, unless the national Republican party interferes with it.
Note on the link: the pdf isn't opening for me right now and the wayback machine isn't helping. It was fine earlier, not sure what the issue is.
Never Trump 2: Electric Boogaloo
I'd think the game plays out in a similar way as it did last time. Republicans denounce and disavow. Trump calls their wives ugly. Republicans then, a week later, pledge support for Donald Trump when they realize which way the wind is blowing.
I'd think the only hope for the establishment and DeSantis is the fact that Trump is old and he's spent a lot of his powder. In that sense Biden may manage to serve as a tactical landmine. You can't make fun of a geriatric dude for 4 years to then support another one without some part of your brain noticing. But ehh, maybe.
Right, but things like not even being listed on the ballot in some states could be big.
So big, in fact, that it would enrage Trump voters who are, as far as I can tell, still a sizeable portion of the Republican voting block. Like, what's the gameplan here? Get your voters to hate your party?
The narrative of the Republican party having 'never Trumpers' in it was a great thing for the party itself, since it kept Trump supporters from hating the party directly. But this? I'm not seeing it.
Extending what seems to me to be an unsupportable amount of charity, the gameplan would be to sideline Trump through an "impartial, rules-based" process, thus removing an incompetent, unpopular, and generally useless blowhard from his position at the head of the party, so that people actually worth a damn can have a shot at securing power and maybe actually getting something done. They think that there's still a nation to fight over and perhaps to salvage, and that the system of power can still be used productively for its intended purposes, and they think Trump is getting in the way of productive business.
In so far as the article is meant to be actionable advice to someone, rather than academic blowhardery, I suspect the aim is to provide the GOPe with a playbook to dump Trump if it becomes necessary. If done while Trump was still viable, this would destroy the Republican party, but there are some fairly obvious situations where Trump is losing and dragging the GOP down with him, but has enough delegates that he can't be dumped in line with the rules.
In particular, the bit about Section 3 being self-executing and everyone involved in the electoral process being obliged to enforce it is an open invitation to Ronna Romney McDaniel to stop the Convention nominating Trump regardless of the delegate counts, should that turn out to be a good idea at the time. (For instance, because Trump has been convicted after a process which leaves the median voter agreeing that he is clearly guilty, or because he ended up running a defense along the lines of "I am so disconnected from reality that I cannot possibly form the mens rea for a crime of dishonesty" and beclowning himself).
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