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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   30606 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 14, 2023

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Some people are just dumb

What % of the whole are dumb, though. Because now we're adding in irrational/random actors, which makes it even less certain that we'll meet our blue threshold because some of those will also be choosing red for dumb reasons.

I have a hard enough time modelling other rational actors in this game, now add the ones who will do things for reasons I can't even fathom!

And if we posit dumb actors, why not posit evil ones as well who are inclined to maximize death toll?

I wouldn't be utterly shocked if everyone chose red (self-interest is a hell of a drug), but I wouldn't be utterly shocked if, say 30% chose blue between those who were dumb and those who thought they were helping.

But expecting only 30% to choose blue is explicitly a reason for me to choose red.

And since the hypo doesn't present a mechanism under which you can reliably predict that the outcome for blue would be over 50%, I am pretty much going to pick the one which provides certainty.

What % of the whole are dumb, though. Because now we're adding in irrational/random actors, which makes it even less certain that we'll meet our blue threshold because some of those will also be choosing red for dumb reasons.

It's a fair question, but I still think the framing is off. I'm not adding irrational actors; they're already part of the scenario as written.

And if we posit dumb actors, why not posit evil ones as well who are inclined to maximize death toll?

Sure, I just don't think there are as many of them as there are pathological altruists, who will choose blue even when blue odds are very low.

But expecting only 30% to choose blue is explicitly a reason for me to choose red.

And since the hypo doesn't present a mechanism under which you can reliably predict that the outcome for blue would be over 50%, I am pretty much going to pick the one which provides certainty.

Agreed. I like to think I would still choose blue if it came down to it, though, because (valuing my own life equal to others) I simply think it has higher EV.

they're already part of the scenario as written.

Maybe? I am kind of working off the assumption that everyone who is capable of participating in the choice is able to at least understand that one choice is "100% chance of survival" even if they can't make complex moral calculations.

I grant that we can't be certain what number of people are irrational, though, which complicates the issue further.

My assumption was that everyone who responded to the poll participates, and this likely includes a few babies and imbeciles.

I mean that seems weird in that how'd they stumble across the poll in the first place?

Unless someone was spreading the poll intentionally to get them involved, which seems risky and possibly evil.

I dunno. It doesn't change my ultimate answer. If I can't know who is and how many are participating in the poll in advance, I'm REALLY not going to try to go for some galaxy-brained play that might backfire.

Well I just mean the actual real-life poll. And yeah that's fair.

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