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Notes -
I’ve been seeing posts on social media about unaffordable the housing market has become (in terms of home price to income ratio). Many people who don’t already own a home are locked out of the home ownership market because the monthly mortgage payment and down payment required has increased a lot faster than the median wage since 2020.
What impacts will unaffordable housing have on politics? Do you think we might see a shift from identity-based politics to politics more focused on economic inequality?
I think people need to stop assuming that conditions that are clearly due to extraordinary circumstances will continue indefinitely. We know why buying a house is difficult now. Mortgage rates are high because the Fed has raised rates to get inflation under control, and home prices are not adjusting downwards because people don't want to move and trade in their 3% mortgages for 7% mortgages.
Sooner or later, one of two things will happen:
Ideally we would also build a lot more homes, but that would require better voters, so don't hold your breath.
Also, the home ownership rate is currently 66%. The only time on record when it's been higher is 1997-2011, and even then it was only a little bit higher (the 2020 spike was just an artifact of pandemic-era polling practices). The percentage of people who don't own their own homes is about what it's always been.
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