naraburns nihil supernum
1yr ago
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Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
We don't know. The hostages may be all dead, or being tortured, or killed in airstrikes, or kept safe in a bunker for negotiation leverage. Anything is possible.
Hamas has a separate political and military leadership structure. Yahya Sinwar is the political leader in Gaza and will almost certainly be killed (if he hasn't been already). Saleh al-Arouri is his deputy. I don't think Israel is interested in leaving anyone in the Gaza leadership alive to negotiate with. There are also Hamas officials living in countries like Qatar, Netanyahu has called for their host countries to be sanctioned if they don't expel them.
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Notes -
Some narrow questions about the current conflict.
I have some narrow questions about the conflict that I'm having trouble getting good answers to. None of these is intended as a "gotcha."
Why can't Palestinian civilians flee to Egypt across Gaza's southern border? What considerations or pressures (internal or external) prevent Egypt from granting entry now to Palestinian refugees?
What is the status of the Israeli hostages? Should we believe that they're still alive? Are they assumed to all be held in Gaza? Are they being detained together? Who coordinates their care? Do we have any knowledge of their treatment in detention?
What is Hamas? Is it a political party? Is there separate civil and military leadership? Does it have a clear command chain? Are leaders identified publicly? Is it clear which particular leaders were likely involved in planning / authorizing Saturday's incursion into Israel? Do these leaders currently reside inside of Gaza? Are they in communication with one another, or are they isolated now? Do they continue coordinating activities, or are they relegated to being bystanders? Is there any line of communication open now between Israeli and Gazan political leadership? Leaving aside willingness, are there Gazan political leaders who would be capable of enforcing the Gazan side of a potential ceasefire?
What are the strategic objectives of Israel's current bombardment / siege of Gaza? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities in preparation for a ground invasion / occupation? Is it aimed at weakening military capabilities to limit Hamas's ability to launch another strike against Israel? Is it bloodlust / punishment / revenge? Is it a show of force to warn other regional actors (from the West Bank, Iran, or Lebanon) to stay away? Is it intended to "break the will" of Gazans, so that popular support will wane for military strikes on Israel? Is it aimed at disincentivizing future military strikes on Israel (by impressing upon prospective actors that the consequences of such strikes will be severe)?
Is there significant continued Gazan military resistance to Israel's bombardment? Are missiles still being launched from Gazan territory? If so, are these coordinated actions, or are they actions taken at the initiative of small, independent groups of actors in Gaza?
If Israel's total blockade of the Gaza strip persists, how will the civilian population be affected? Clearly, medically-vulnerable people will be severely impacted in the immediate term. But over what timeframe will the general population face life-threatening hardship (and not simple inconvenience)?
Leaving aside ethical and moral obligations, is there a case that Israel has a proactive legal obligation to permit the influx of humanitarian supplies to Gaza along their shared border?
I assume that others here have their own narrow questions. If so, maybe they could go in this thread.
As mentioned by others, Egypt will not allow it.
We don't know. The hostages may be all dead, or being tortured, or killed in airstrikes, or kept safe in a bunker for negotiation leverage. Anything is possible.
Hamas has a separate political and military leadership structure. Yahya Sinwar is the political leader in Gaza and will almost certainly be killed (if he hasn't been already). Saleh al-Arouri is his deputy. I don't think Israel is interested in leaving anyone in the Gaza leadership alive to negotiate with. There are also Hamas officials living in countries like Qatar, Netanyahu has called for their host countries to be sanctioned if they don't expel them.
I believe the current primary goal of the airstrikes is to kill everyone in the Hamas leadership in Gaza: IDF Air Force Chief Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar said on Thursday that he has a list of which Hamas officials masterminded and planned the invasion of southern Israel this past Saturday and that they will all disappear.
Hamas is continuing to launch rockets into Israel.
Who knows. It's not clear how much water and food they had stockpiled.
has been answered by @Kinoite much better than I could hope to.
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