This is a refreshed megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.
Two thoughts: First, Palestinian casualties since Oct. 7 are close to an order of magnitude higher than Israeli casualties on Oct. 7. Israel has already responded; who’s to say they need to keep it up?
Second, whatever they do, they should do it on their own, without a penny of U.S. aid. Since that doesn’t seem to be on the table, I support a ceasefire, and I hope international pressure succeeds in getting one put in place.
The purpose of the Israeli war is to get Hamas out of power, not to kill an equal number of Gazans as the number of Israelis who died in the initial attack. The goal isn't revenge, it's regime change.
A ceasefire just means that Hamas gets another few years to oppress the Gazans before trying for another massacre.
Alternatively if the goal was simply to kill enough Palestinians that they would be deterred from any future attack, I think it's clear that number has not been reached yet - if it exists at all.
Does Israel have any reasonable shot at both getting Hamas out of power and preventing the rise of Hamas 2.0? I don’t believe it does. If I’m right about that, the only question that remains is how much vengeance the Israelis should exact on the Gazans for the events of October 7. An order of magnitude more fatalities plus an unknown number of additional casualties doesn’t seem like a ridiculous stopping point. After all, if regime change isn’t possible, is it really moral to continue killing? It certainly violates most people’s idea of a just war.
Does Israel have any reasonable shot at both getting Hamas out of power and preventing the rise of Hamas 2.0? I don’t believe it does.
Why not? Why can't it be an ongoing West Bank-style occupation? You don't see Hamas seizing power in Ramallah or rockets being launched from Hebron - and the people there hate Israel every bit as much as the ones in Gaza do.
I understand that would be unpopular internationally, but what else is new?
I believe the casualty level necessary to subdue Hamas and occupy Gaza would be unacceptable even to Israel’s closest ally. If Israel had gone in blasting in the first two days after the attack, they might have gotten away with it. By now, though, the moment has passed, and I don’t see any possible path toward occupation.
Israel has already responded; who’s to say they need to keep it up?
I don't think a world were every couple decades Palestine kills one thousand Israelis and Israel then kills ten thousand Palestinians is the ideal equilibrium. Although given how messy this conflict is, maybe it is
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Notes -
I have a question for those of you who support a ceasefire.
How do you think Israel should respond to the events of October 7?
Two thoughts: First, Palestinian casualties since Oct. 7 are close to an order of magnitude higher than Israeli casualties on Oct. 7. Israel has already responded; who’s to say they need to keep it up?
Second, whatever they do, they should do it on their own, without a penny of U.S. aid. Since that doesn’t seem to be on the table, I support a ceasefire, and I hope international pressure succeeds in getting one put in place.
The purpose of the Israeli war is to get Hamas out of power, not to kill an equal number of Gazans as the number of Israelis who died in the initial attack. The goal isn't revenge, it's regime change.
A ceasefire just means that Hamas gets another few years to oppress the Gazans before trying for another massacre.
Alternatively if the goal was simply to kill enough Palestinians that they would be deterred from any future attack, I think it's clear that number has not been reached yet - if it exists at all.
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Does Israel have any reasonable shot at both getting Hamas out of power and preventing the rise of Hamas 2.0? I don’t believe it does. If I’m right about that, the only question that remains is how much vengeance the Israelis should exact on the Gazans for the events of October 7. An order of magnitude more fatalities plus an unknown number of additional casualties doesn’t seem like a ridiculous stopping point. After all, if regime change isn’t possible, is it really moral to continue killing? It certainly violates most people’s idea of a just war.
Why not? Why can't it be an ongoing West Bank-style occupation? You don't see Hamas seizing power in Ramallah or rockets being launched from Hebron - and the people there hate Israel every bit as much as the ones in Gaza do.
I understand that would be unpopular internationally, but what else is new?
I believe the casualty level necessary to subdue Hamas and occupy Gaza would be unacceptable even to Israel’s closest ally. If Israel had gone in blasting in the first two days after the attack, they might have gotten away with it. By now, though, the moment has passed, and I don’t see any possible path toward occupation.
Who is going to stop them and how? It may be "unacceptable" but in practice "unacceptable" things get accepted all the time.
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I don't think a world were every couple decades Palestine kills one thousand Israelis and Israel then kills ten thousand Palestinians is the ideal equilibrium. Although given how messy this conflict is, maybe it is
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