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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 20, 2023

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I'm personally convinced it was the Brits

Can you expand on this? I haven’t heard this theory before and I don’t see what we’d have to gain. Unless purely sucking up to the US? Even we aren’t that self-sabotaging, although I can’t say that as strongly as I once might have.

Personally I would give 80% odds it’s some combo of Ukrainian and American op, on the basis of opportunity plus cui bono.

It's funny you haven't heard of the Brit theory because it's the one claimed by the Russians: that the same navy advisors helping the ukies in the black sea did it.

There's some circumstantial evidence that Lizz Truss sent confirmation to Blinken right after the event.

I'll readily admit this is mostly a hunch because the evidence of any party being the actual operator of the sabotage is scant. It's all hearsay even for the Ukrainian theory. We know the Brits have been doing a lot of other US dirty work-related to this war, so it fits into a larger picture.

It’s a very common Russian conspiracy theory that Britain is secretly pulling the strings behind the American empire and controls US foreign policy.

Understandable given the British role in Russian history I suppose.

I guess they may very well be playing off that, but Britain has also a pretty consistent track record of being America's enforcer in Europe. I'd be very surprised if they weren't involved to some degree.

It’s a very common Russian conspiracy theory that Britain is secretly pulling the strings behind the American empire and controls US foreign policy.

Dear God, I wish. I won’t deny we’ve played spoiler on occasion (AUKUS). But as far as I can see British Government long ago gave up on any strategy except ‘suck up to (and cower behind) big bro’ and the rewards have been negligible.

I will never forgive or forget Obama making it clear that if we left the EU he would make sure we didn’t get any trade deals with the US. I cannot imagine a world where the UK did something the US didn’t like and it supported us because we’re allies. Or for that matter the US allowing any other western power to attain a non-client status or to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy.

I believe Obama said that the UK would go to the 'back of the queue' for any trade deals, not taking a trade deal off of the table, but making it clear that the promises of some Brexiteers that the UK could just seamlessly move from the EU into a free trade agreement with the US were unrealistic.

Eh, it depends on context I guess. The remark was made as an explicit intervention by an ally during a time of high political tension. The Remain side was relying very heavily on hyped-up visions of doom that would occur if we left the EU and Obama's remark was a clear signal that the US would not support us. Given that we had been loyal allies who fought and bled for them in Iraq and Afghanistan, I think we had a right to expect more. And indeed people were furious, I think he produced a 1 or 2 point swing towards Leave by himself.

If he had said, 'If Britain leaves the EU, then as your allies we will do our very best to support you in the interim but producing a trade deal is complicated and will take some time', then that would have been different. Still a little cool, but an understandable equivocation.