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Notes -
I think that after the mid 70s it was clear. In the early 80s everyone just waited for the regime to die. Probably there were signs during the space race too - but then the smart people were either too pro USSR or too blinded by anti communism to be objective.
This is completely wrong.
The most amusing anecdote to that effect: in 1987 Star Trek TNG's future history included launches from Baikonur Cosmodrome, USSR in 2363; in 1989 another mention established the USSR as still active at least through 2123.
But most of the rest of the recent Twitter thread where I saw that is good too, and a more academic view can be found here.
I keep harping on this lately for some reason, but for a decade and a half the position of "the smart people" was that, as Walter Cronkite put it, “It turned out there had never been a race to the Moon”. It wasn't until 1989 that the very existence of the N1 rocket, including the most powerful rocket stage ever flown until the SpaceX SuperHeavy tests this year, finally leaked.
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