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It depends on how malleable the AGI is, how many people have direct access to those levers, and how much auditing/permission is required to modify its goals.
Current RLHF takes time, you don't simply just append "be helpful and harmless" to a system prompt and immediately finish your job. Even accounting for sweeping algorithmic changes and significantly faster turnover, I expect that the people designing and implementing a superhuman AGI to have something in the way of checks and balances for making sure that updates pushed to production are approved by an oversight committee, not just one dude, no matter how senior.
Like, these people are not stupid, if I can predict the risk from the head scientist telling the AI to hand over the keys to the kingdom, so can they. Let alone all the genius level AGI or narrowly superhuman AI implemented along the way.
There are potentially ways around this, like creating undetectable backdoors when feeding a model training data (an almost intractable problem, without making cryptography trivial first), but they're not possible to pull off without a great deal of premeditation, or a risk of whistleblowing.
I put more stock in a small group/cabal controlling an AGI far more than any one person, unless the company is under private ownership by one person, like in the case of Musk. And Grok, bless its heart, isn't SOTA, nor do I put particularly high odds on X AI overtaking the incumbents at OAI/DM/Anthropic.
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