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Absolutely not, his analysis is cogent and perceptive. I'm not approaching this from the perspective of "should we dismiss this out of hand as the ramblings of a disturbed man?", but rather "regardless of the virtues of this piece, is its publication cause for concern about deBoer's well-being?" Maybe it's not my place to ask or wonder. Presumably if he really was on the verge of a manic breakdown, his partner would have clocked some much more obvious red flags long before he pressed publish on this post.
People who disagree with someone on the Internet have a hefty incentive for motivated reasoning in thinking the person to be disturbed.
Also, you're probably not particularly concerned over his well-being in general. If he posted that he had a physical illness you probably wouldn't even send him a get well card.
I explicitly stated that, in spite of finding this article concerning, there was much in it that I agreed with. deBoer has posted dozens of articles whose theses I've disagreed with, often explicitly telling him so in the comments section - this is the first to make me concerned that he might be having a bipolar relapse.
Correct. The obvious difference being that a person going into a manic episode or a psychotic break may pose a risk to themselves or those around them, and may not even realise that they're ill.
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Descriptively, if there were a prediction market for "will FdB be institutionalized by the end of December 2024," I think this would marginally up the price.
But really there's nothing to be done. Neither of us knows him or has even met him (presumably), and the idea that his audience should be invested in his well-being is just another manifestation of the detestable parasocialism infesting the world. I know in my own life there's probably at least a couple people teetering on the brink, and I might have actual ability to help them in some small amount: speculating on FdB's mental state should be understood as entertainment, not as something helpful (which isn't to say it's bad to speculate, just that it's not a form of constructive engagement with the world).
I hope so, but I suspect that's overly optimistic.
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