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Notes -
It's what you expect if the result is essentially random, or contains a random element.
That's not how most people view it, most assume that it's like lifting weights. If one can press 225 there's a 100% chance one can press 205, and a near 100% chance one can squat 225. People broadly view college admin that way, if you get into 15 you definitely get into 20 etc.
College admissions are really more like dating: you might be hot or you might not be, and that helps your odds, but you can never look at a girl and say "x guy should definitely fall in love with you." You can say it's odd if a hot girl can't get any dates at all, but even then it often has something to do with her. If many hot girls can't get dates, you can say something about the system, but nothing about individual girls or boys.
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