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What is the future of Israel?
Progressive leftists these days are Anti-Israel, and this sentiment is only likely more to spread. With the South Africa apartheid comparison looming, Im guessing that Israel will eventually be sanctioned by the United States and that this is an unavoidable outcome. Dont believe me? The Anti-Israel sentiment on the internet has been astounding, and even once the Gaza war flares down, there will always possibility be a flare up in violence in the West Bank. If I had to guess, in 20 years, a progressive candidate will be either talking or enacting sanctions against Israel.
So lets go into how Israel will change in the future, and what it might possibly do.
Israeli demographics are interesting. Some background. Israel is principally divided into two groups of Jews. Ashkenazi(European) and Mizrachi(Middle Eastern). About half of Israeli Jews are of Ashkenazi descent, while the other half is Mizarahi. There is significant intermarriage, so the lines are now blurred. Israel is also split along religious lines, with around 13% of israeli Jews being Ultra Orthodox, with the remainder being either secular or traditional. Israel birthrates are high. The average birthrate per woman is 3 in Israel, and its trending upwards. Thats the highest in the Western world. Its trending upwards in all demographics, except the Ultra-Orthodox, whose birthrate has trended downwards to 6.8-6.6 kids per woman.
By 2050, a third of Israeli Jews will be Ultra-Orthodox, up from the 13% they are now. By some estimates, by 2060 they will make up half of Israeli Jews.
Israeli Ultra-Orthodox primarily vote for United Torah Judaism, a union of Haredi Degel HaTorah and Hasidic Agudat Israel. A majority of Israeli ultra orthodox are Ashkenazi, but there is a minority that is Mizrahi. The Mizrahi minority votes for Shas. Shas usually gets more seats than United Torah Judaism, why? Because many Shas voters arent ultra orthodox, but rather traditional and religious Mizrahi Jews. Shas functions as a Mizrahi Jew interest party. Mizrahi Jews have tended to be more religious on average than Ashkenazi. Saying all this, there is actually a third group of "Ultra Orthodox" who are growing rapidly.
They are called Chardal. Chardal are ultra orthodox who are religious zionist. Religious Zionism is the ideology that believes all of the West Bank should be under Israeli control, they are big in the Israeli settler movement. Traditionally, Ultra Orthodox Jews are Non Zionist, not believing in a Jewish state or being maximalist in regards to territory. While this is still true for United Torah Judaism, it is no longer true for Shas, which is now Zionist.
Chardal are the most right wing. Shas is firmly right wing. United Torah judaism is middle of the road, and is open to siding with the left and center, depending on the Rabbis who lead them opinion.
The reason I make such a big point about Ultra Orthodox, is that they are the future of Israel. Israel will only get more religious, and more right wing. Even normal non ultra orthodox right wing voters, have more children then secular leftists.
Lets say the Israel Palestinian conflict remains unsolved in 20 years. Israel is likely to face economic sanctions, in the vein of either South Africa or Russia. Based off demographics, Im skeptical that sanctions will convince a religious and right population to change course. Israel is a populist ethnic democracy, its govt is responsive to its voter base, and I dont think that will change.
In 20 years, we can expect a multitude of geopolitical changes. First, oil's importance in the world economy will decline. The power of Gulf Arab states will be lessened. Two, I think the US and China will decouple even more so economically, in an effort to prevent Chinas rise. I do not think it will work. China has a decreasing population, but the unknown factor is AI. Advances in AI are likely to hit the upper middle technological class hardest and reduce amount of jobs. I believe China will whether the shrinkage of its population, decently in my opinion. There will be pain, but not instability. Three, Russia is unlikely to get unsanctioned by the West. Russia invading Ukraine was a no go for Europe and America. Conquering territory has made Russia a pariah for a generation, unless they give it back, which they wont, the economic sanctions on Russia will likely not dissipate. Russia will also, not collapse. The Russian economy had mostly survived fine under sanctions with some pain, and most corporations that were stationed there left their infrastructure there. That infrastructure is being run, and it seems most Russian citizens(or at least in Moscow and St petersburg) have access to most of the same goods that they had before, with only some shortages.
My bet is, that if Israel is sanctioned in 20 years, it will reorient to China and Russia as major trade partners and allies. China is already one of Israels biggest trade partners. They mostly dont care about human rights, and domestic political considerations for humanitarian foreign policy are basically non existent. Russia will be similar. Both economies will likely be decoupled from America in 20 years, to some degree or another.
Israel is an entirely export and manufacturing driven economy, with little raw resources. The Ultra-Orthodox and Right wing sentiment(as in Anti-Two state solution sentiment) is growing. If israel is sanctioned by the West, it is likely Israel would expropriate the infrastructure that globalized trade and companies have left in it to survive. Israel will also likely start to receive most of its raw materials from Russia, and subsidiary and secondary materials for manufacturing from China or India.
The middle east with the decline of oil, will be a poor and war torn place...more so than it is already. Climate change will only make things worse and more unlivable. What does this mean for Israel?
Lets look at the middle east. Egypt is apparently, not doing well economic wise even though its indicators say its growing. Dictator El Sisi has favored military owned businesses to push out private industry. There is increased spending on inefficient infrastructure projects like the new capital. Industrial and agricultural capacities in Egypt are inefficient relative to population. With the construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance dam, Egypt's nile river is threatened with significantly decreased water flow. This will impact industrial and agricultural capacity further and could lead to war with Ethiopia, which would weaken Egypt.
Lebanon is suffering from chronic brain drain and corruption. The Lebanese Syrian and Palestinian populations of refugees makes up almost 2 million people out of 5.6 million. That is a third of the country. Syria is a failed state that will not be able to attract industry in the future, as it will take some time to recover from the Civil War. Jordan is the only economy of the Levant Arab states doing somewhat well. And it is having a hard time managing its Syrian refugee population, which is numerous
Here is their relevance to Israel's future.
If Israel is sanctioned by the West, I believe Israel will expel the Palestinians in Areas A and B into Jordan. Thats currently 3 million people, and it will expand into more.
None of Israels neighbors are doing well economically. Corruption, climate change, internal strife and refugees make them more prone to inefficient war machines and economies.
If Israel expels the Palestinians, there will be a regional war. Jordan, Syria, Egypt and Lebanon, the countries bordering Israel, will likely attack in some capacity. Israel will likely win, for a variety of reasons. It is a major arms manufacturer, being number 9 in the world and mostly self sufficient in terms of arms and missiles and tanks and drones, with it mainly being reliant on United States for aircraft parts.
The Levant Arab states will not commit to many troops to try to attack Israel for fear of nuclear weapons that Israel has. There will be mostly token forces to fight Israel to not risk Israel using a nuclear bomb.
I cant help but feel while my analysis is detailed and somewhat knowledgeable, that it is lacking somehow. Could anyone offer their insight?
I think you've got this very wrong. US foreign policy towards Israel won't change at all. Not one bit. Anti-Israel sentiment periodically rises, the pro-Hamas/pr-Palestinian protest cycle is very old indeed - decades and decades old. Did the previous protest cycles change US foreign policy towards Israel? No.
US Pro-Israel sentiment has usually been very strong. When has it been ever as weak as it currently is?
Plus the US is not currently reliant on foreign sources of oil. There isnt much reason for the US to support Israel
I could be convinced if you could show me 40 years of polling results on Israel WRT youth sentiment, it'd be better by far if you could dive into how those numbers changed during times of conflict.
The US has never been Israel's ally because of oil, Israel is important because it's part of our containment strategy towards Iran (among other things).
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