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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 18, 2023

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You seem to be painting a picture where the problem is basically that voters are too stupid (to see through lies and avoid repeatedly being fooled, or pay attention when the proponents of Brexit make it clear that they aren't actually against immigration) and helpless (to build their own institutions and political parties, or even "just" start a revolution) to get their preferences satisfied. At that point, it's hard to even invoke something like a social contract for why politicians should heed voter interests in this matter, since a contract implies a deal which implies some sort of mutual benefit and evidently there is no detriment to politicians from defecting; and all that you can appeal to is some sort of slave-morality pity or obligation towards their inferiors. Wolves and lambs can never be of one mind, etc.

You seem to be painting a picture where the problem is basically that voters are too stupid

They're not stupid, they (rightfully) get apathetic about the prospect of achieving change through electoral politics when they face a myriad of manufactured legal/political constraints to achieving their goals. This leads to much less trust in the government and less national cohesion. On the whole, the Brexit campaign was associated with future immigration reduction, this is the broad essence of what was communicated. It's very hard to argue against this:

After the announcement had been made as to the outcome of the referendum, Rowena Mason, political correspondent for The Guardian offered the following assessment: "Polling suggests discontent with the scale of migration to the UK has been the biggest factor pushing Britons to vote out, with the contest turning into a referendum on whether people are happy to accept free movement in return for free trade."

That the Brexiteers didn't formally promise to reduce immigration afterwards does not remove from the fact that the referendum was about reduction of immigration as far as voters were concerned. And putting communications to one side, Brexit was a necessary prerequisite to preventing immigration, EU had freedom of movement.

why politicians should heed voter interests in this matter

They'll have lots of fun with a population that instinctively resists their policies and distrusts their leaders. I'm eager to see how they fill the ranks of the grossly understrength British Army in this climate. Do they think people are going to make any sacrifices for their country, when it is not their country?

Politicians aren't wolves, they're fat cats who rely on the increasingly grudging consent of the governed. Haven't you read the hundred million articles complaining about the decline of democratic ideology, trust in government, populism, political radicalism, misinformation, conspiracy theories? This has severe longterm consequences for the sustainability of the system, it induces fragility.

On the whole, the Brexit campaign was associated with future immigration reduction, this is the broad essence of what was communicated.

If you are being lied to repeatedly, but still continue believing what you are told, that seems like a pretty canonical indicator of insufficient brainpower, informally known as stupidity. Your subsequent quote also further confirms that Brexit voters voted for Brexit because they expected it to lead to a reduction in immigration. If being able to predict the consequences of your actions is not a measure of intelligence, then what is?

They'll have lots of fun with a population that instinctively resists their policies and distrusts their leaders.

I mean, the first half of your post, put in the context of everything that happened before Brexit (and I'm sure that any attentive participant of the political system can show me a long list of instances of the electorate being deceived since the dawn of democracy), seems to suggest that the population is actually quite credulous and trusting of their leaders despite everything. At the moment Labour seems to be leading in polls, but I'm sure that if they get elected and screw up in some way power will revert to the Tories. Clearly there is no sufficient distrust to make people do something as drastic as vote third or rather fourth party, or do anything else that would reveal a preference for not continuing in the same way and deferring to the same leaders. I doubt politicians will lose many nights of sleep over people saying in TV interviews that they don't trust them and will resist their policies, as long as those people reliably keep paying their taxes, spinning in the hamster wheel, obeying the laws and voting for them.