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Notes -
Pakistan
Pakistan will supposedly have elections next Thursday, though there have been some murmurs of delaying it again. The Pakistani Taliban (TPP) has promised not to attack any election rallies, which is polite of them.
Former PM Imran Khan of course still banned from running, but his presence looms large over the election - only Monday the police arrested dozens of people at a rally in his favor. His party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has had all its proposed candidates banned, which leaves the election dominated by Pakistan’s historical establishment parties, he Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). The PPP will be led by former Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, son of former PM Benazir Bhutto and grandson of former PM Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, both of whom were killed in office (so you see why a terrorist group promising not to commit political violence is actually a bit of a big deal). The PML-N is slated to perform well and will be led by Nawaz Sharif, who has been Prime Minister on three separate occasions, which cumulatively put together make him the longest serving PM. So basically two extremely establishment, dynastic candidates from parties that voters overwhelmingly rejected in favor of PTI.
Separately, the Diplomat has a good writeup on Pakistan and America’s evolving security cooperation. Collaboration has somewhat reduced since the American withdrawal from Afghanistan nearly nearly three years ago, but Pakistani intelligence has aided in American operations against Al Qaeda (including the assassination of their leader al-Zawahiri) and the US continues to be Pakistan’s main ally against the TPP, long considered their own most serious security threat. Still, things have shifted - the US used to dronestrike the TPP, now we mostly sanction them.
Pakistan has been trying its best to restore the previous relationship and coax out more military aid. They’ve been somewhat successful - Trump cut them off from aid for not doing enough to combat anti-American militants; they’ve stepped up activities there and Biden has restored aid. The relationship is still not what it once was, but the countries continue to share some common goals and common enemies - potentially moreso if relations between Pakistan and Iran deteriorate.
Though for now it looks like escalation between Pakistan and Iran has been successfully avoided and smoothed over. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian (say that five times fast) has now visited Pakistan in hopes of smoothing things over after the previous week of lobbing missiles at each other. They both said they got a little too excited there for a minute and reiterated their unity over their common hatred of terrorists and secessionists. Peace in our time.
Separately, Pakistan has accused India of extrajudicially killing two Pakistani citizens and claims to have proof.
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