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Notes -
I broadly agree with your other points, but I think the above is debatable. First, the existential link seems like it could ebb and flow over time, especially if it's tied to domestic politics--"strong horse" confidence, where supporters like expansion, tolerate stasis, but reject contraction. Especially after formally annexing several parts of Ukraine, losing those chunks isn't a case of renegotiated battle lines that are expected to be in some level of flux, but actual political losses of claimed-core territory, so they might be existential today when they weren't a month ago. Second, this ties into the security state, which I agree Putin has control of now, but would lose if there's a cascading failure of confidence within its ranks. I'm not claiming that will happen tomorrow, or anytime soon, necessarily. But Putin's iron control of his security state is the sort of thing that's true until it isn't, and preference cascades are remarkably abrupt when they occur.
In the hypothetical where Putin loses control of the security state, and with it, Russia, I can't say which of the following is more likely ("Putin's poor decisions have led to disaster!" is a given)--"Putin's rampant militarism has caused great harm to Mother Russia!" or "Putin's half-hearted efforts have failed to achieve our mission!"
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